TITAGARH RAIL SYSTEMS LIMITED Fair Value
TITAGARH · Capital Goods · Current price ₹749.15
Is TITAGARH RAIL SYSTEMS LIMITED undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of TITAGARH RAIL SYSTEMS LIMITED at ₹541 per share, against a market price of ₹842. That puts the share price about -35.8% above our estimate, at medium confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 1 method: Fair multiple (P/E) (₹541). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for TITAGARH RAIL SYSTEMS LIMITED spans ₹487 to ₹596. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for TITAGARH RAIL SYSTEMS LIMITED. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹487 – ₹596
Why this method for this business
Titagarh Rail Systems is an industrial manufacturer with durable, capital-intensive assets. A relative P/E captures its earnings power and sector positioning, while EV/EBITDA reflects its capital structure and operational efficiency.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
required inputs missing
- dcf: Not suitable for capital-intensive manufacturing with volatile cash flows and high debt
- fair multiple (P/E): Already used in relative PE model
What was missing
- Lack of forward EBITDA estimates for precise EV/EBITDA modeling
- Limited analyst coverage for P/E multiple validation
What drives it
15 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- Sector-median P/E
- 41.73×
- Peers used
- 3
- EPS (TTM)
- 14 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 43.25×
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Term: quality
- -13.9%
- Term: growth
- -3.5%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +5.5%
- Term: financial_strength
- +3.4%
- Term: history
- +1.1%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
quality 27/100 (weak/erratic returns) → discount
weak ~2% CAGR (ROCE 7% < 12% hurdle (growth not value-accretive)) → discount
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.2) → mild premium
history: market paid +4% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Premium vs sector
- -7.3%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 65%
- Fair P/E
- 38.67×
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for TITAGARH RAIL SYSTEMS LIMITED: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on TITAGARH RAIL SYSTEMS LIMITED
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.