Uneven monsoons, El Nino pose upside risks to inflation; another RBI hike possible: Report
Economic Times 23 min ago·13 Nov 2026, 3:35 am
A recent report from Nuvama Institutional Equities suggests that India's upcoming monsoon season and the potential arrival of El Nino conditions could complicate the inflation outlook. The uneven rainfall expected this year may drive up food prices, a key component of the consumer price index. This development suggests that inflation could remain stickier than previously anticipated.
For investors, this scenario implies that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might maintain a hawkish stance. The central bank is likely to keep interest rates elevated to ensure price stability, which could impact borrowing costs and equity valuations. Consequently, the broader market may face volatility as investors adjust to the possibility of further monetary tightening.
Moving forward, market participants should closely monitor the government's monsoon forecasts and the RBI's policy statements. Any signs of persistent food inflation could trigger further rate hikes, while a positive monsoon could ease these concerns. Investors should stay alert to these macroeconomic signals to navigate the evolving market landscape.
Key takeaways
- Category: Economy.
- AI reads the tone as negative (potentially bearish) for the stock.
- Flagged as a high-impact, market-moving story.
Why it matters
This is a high-impact development and could move the stock. The tone is negative — watch for downside reaction. Use the price and stock snapshot to gauge how the market is responding.
