Afcons Infrastructure Limited Intrinsic Value
AFCONS · Construction · Current price ₹244.7
Is Afcons Infrastructure Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Afcons Infrastructure Limited at ₹105 per share, against a market price of ₹254. That puts the share price about -58.6% above our estimate, at medium confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹111), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹92). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Afcons Infrastructure Limited spans ₹92 to ₹115. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
Margin of safety
Value investors look for a margin of safety: a discount to estimated value that absorbs being wrong. At ₹254 against an estimated value of ₹105, Afcons Infrastructure Limited trades at -58.6%, i.e. a premium to our estimate. How much margin to demand depends on how much you trust the inputs, which is what the confidence band below is for.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Afcons Infrastructure Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹92 – ₹115
Why this method for this business
The DCF model is appropriate for a capital-intensive construction company with a clear cash flow generation potential, while the relative PE model captures market sentiment and peer valuation dynamics.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
- ev_ebitda is not used due to lack of reliable EBITDA multiples for construction firms in the current market environment
What was missing
- Lack of historical P/E multiples for the construction sector
- Limited analyst coverage for smallcap stocks
What drives it
26 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 330 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 3,241.3 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 21.55×
- Peers used
- 28
- EPS (TTM)
- 3.94 ₹/share
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
total_debt − cash
peer-median
peer-median
computed
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 8.1%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5%
- Stage-1 years
- 8 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Mature
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Mature horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Mature
- Quality premium
- 1×
- Term: quality
- -2.8%
- Term: growth
- -3.7%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +10.7%
- Term: financial_strength
- +2.8%
- Term: history
- +0.0%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat None + capital allocation
quality 49/100 (weak/erratic returns) → discount
weak ~7% CAGR (ROCE 19% > hurdle) → discount
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.7) → mild premium
history: no reliable own-history P/E → not used
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.512
- Premium vs sector
- +7.9%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 54%
- Fair P/E
- 23.25×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Afcons Infrastructure Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Afcons Infrastructure Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.