Ahluwalia Contracts (India) Limited Fair Value
AHLUCONT · Construction · Current price ₹555.45
Is Ahluwalia Contracts (India) Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Ahluwalia Contracts (India) Limited at ₹730 per share, against a market price of ₹601. That puts the share price about +21.5% below our estimate, at low confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹425), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹1,035). These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their midpoint rather than a weighted blend, and the disagreement is part of the finding. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Ahluwalia Contracts (India) Limited spans ₹425 to ₹803. That range is wide, which is the honest signal here: read the range rather than the single number. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Ahluwalia Contracts (India) Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹425 – ₹803
Why this method for this business
The construction industry is capital-intensive and cyclically sensitive, making DCF and EV/EBITDA the most appropriate models. Relative PE is used to benchmark against peers, but with caution due to sector volatility.
The models behind the number
These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their plain midpoint rather than a weighted blend. The disagreement is itself the finding.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
required inputs missing
- Discounted cash flow (2-stage) is the primary model, but the deterministic baseline overweights it. EV/EBITDA is underweighted despite its relevance for capital-heavy businesses. Relative PE is used but with limited data quality.
What was missing
- Lack of forward-looking EBITDA and EPS data
- Limited peer comparison data for EV/EBITDA
- Insufficient historical data on project execution risks
What drives it
27 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 145 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 73 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 16.98×
- Peers used
- 31
- EPS (TTM)
- 33.59 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 19.91×
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 20%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 4.98%
- Stage-1 years
- 10 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Growth
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Growth horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Growth
- Quality premium
- 0.997×
- Term: quality
- +7.9%
- Term: growth
- +40.0%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +2.7%
- Term: financial_strength
- +10.0%
- Term: history
- +5.2%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat None + capital allocation
quality 71/100 (high, stable returns) → premium
durable ~23% CAGR (ROCE 25% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: effectively debt-free → premium
history: market paid +17% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.476
- Premium vs sector
- +81.5%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 87%
- Fair P/E
- 30.82×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Ahluwalia Contracts (India) Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 15 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Ahluwalia Contracts (India) Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.