Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Limited Intrinsic Value
AKUMS · Healthcare · Current price ₹731
Is Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Limited at ₹512 per share, against a market price of ₹776. That puts the share price about -34.1% above our estimate, at low confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹202), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹823). These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their midpoint rather than a weighted blend, and the disagreement is part of the finding. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Limited spans ₹256 to ₹823. That range is wide, which is the honest signal here: read the range rather than the single number. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
Margin of safety
Value investors look for a margin of safety: a discount to estimated value that absorbs being wrong. At ₹776 against an estimated value of ₹512, Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Limited trades at -34.1%, i.e. a premium to our estimate. How much margin to demand depends on how much you trust the inputs, which is what the confidence band below is for.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹256 – ₹823
Why this method for this business
DCF and relative PE are appropriate for a pharmaceutical CDMO with stable cash flows and a durable moat, while EV/EBITDA is less relevant due to the asset-light nature of the business.
The models behind the number
These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their plain midpoint rather than a weighted blend. The disagreement is itself the finding.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
- ev_ebitda is less suitable for an asset-light business with strong cash flow generation
What was missing
- Lack of historical P/E data for accurate relative PE normalization
- Limited analyst coverage for precise forward estimates
What drives it
26 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 177 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 157 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 38.07×
- Peers used
- 43
- EPS (TTM)
- 18.53 ₹/share
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
peer-median
peer-median
computed
- Discount rate (r)
- 13.28%
- Beta
- 0.85
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 14%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.3%
- Stage-1 years
- 9 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Mature
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Mature horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Mature
- Quality premium
- 1.06×
- Term: quality
- -7.0%
- Term: growth
- +19.3%
- Term: capital_allocation
- -0.8%
- Term: financial_strength
- +4.7%
- Term: history
- +0.0%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
quality 41/100 (weak/erratic returns) → discount
durable ~13% CAGR (ROCE 14% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: steady → neutral
financial strength: effectively debt-free → premium
history: no reliable own-history P/E → not used
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.545
- Premium vs sector
- +16.6%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 56%
- Fair P/E
- 44.39×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.