APL Apollo Tubes Limited DCF Valuation
APLAPOLLO · Capital Goods · Current price ₹2,152.7
APL Apollo Tubes Limited cash-flow valuation
Our engine did not use a discounted-cash-flow model for APL Apollo Tubes Limited. It routes each business to the methods that suit it, and a DCF is a poor lens where cash-flow forecasts are fragile or the business is capital-structure driven. The methods it did use, and why, are set out below. Our published estimate is ₹3,320.
Try your own assumptions
Prefer to build the discounted cash flow yourself? The DCF calculator below opens pre-filled with APL Apollo Tubes Limited's reported free cash flow, net debt and share count, so you can set your own growth and discount rate.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for APL Apollo Tubes Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹2,988 – ₹3,652
Why this method for this business
Normalized earnings and EV/EBITDA are appropriate for a capital-intensive steel manufacturer with cyclical earnings, while relative PE captures market sentiment and sector positioning.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
implied value is <0.2× the price (likely a data error)
required inputs missing
- Fair multiple (P/E) was rejected due to data inconsistency and overvaluation relative to historical norms
- DCF was excluded due to the cyclical nature of the business and the difficulty in forecasting cash flows accurately
What was missing
- Lack of forward-looking analyst estimates for EBITDA and EPS
- Limited data on capital allocation efficiency
What drives it
16 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- Sector-median P/E
- 25.1×
- Peers used
- 9
- EPS (TTM)
- 44.27 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 55.91×
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Anchor correction
- peer anchor 25.1x diverges 2.2x from 7yr own-history 55.9x (no size-comparable peer) — anchor blended 0.6 toward own-history → 43.6x
- Term: quality
- +6.9%
- Term: growth
- +40.0%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +9.3%
- Term: financial_strength
- +7.5%
- Term: history
- +8.5%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
peer-anchor mismatch — deep own-history used instead
quality 69/100 (high, stable returns) → premium
durable ~23% CAGR (ROCE 24% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.2) → mild premium
history: market paid +28% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Premium vs sector
- +72.1%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 87%
- Fair P/E
- 75×
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for APL Apollo Tubes Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on APL Apollo Tubes Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.