Aurobindo Pharma Limited DCF Valuation
AUROPHARMA · Healthcare · Current price ₹1,666.9
Aurobindo Pharma Limited cash-flow valuation
Our discounted cash flow (2-stage) values Aurobindo Pharma Limited at ₹340 per share. Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path. It carries 70% of the weight in our published estimate of ₹705. A discounted cash flow is only as good as the cash-flow path it assumes, so the assumptions behind it are listed in full below.
Try your own assumptions
Prefer to build the discounted cash flow yourself? The DCF calculator below opens pre-filled with Aurobindo Pharma Limited's reported free cash flow, net debt and share count, so you can set your own growth and discount rate.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Aurobindo Pharma Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹340 – ₹1,070
Why this method for this business
Aurobindo Pharma is an asset-light compounder with durable moat and strong earnings power, making DCF and relative PE the most appropriate models. EV/EBITDA is less relevant due to the company's strong cash flow generation and low debt.
The models behind the number
These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their plain midpoint rather than a weighted blend. The disagreement is itself the finding.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
- ev_ebitda is less suitable for a compounder with strong earnings power and low debt
What was missing
- Lack of analyst dispersion data for PE multiple
- Limited forward EPS estimates for precise DCF modeling
What drives it
28 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 1,481 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 8,073 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 36.65×
- Peers used
- 18
- EPS (TTM)
- 64.09 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 15.75×
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Discount rate (r)
- 13.28%
- Beta
- 0.85
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 5.36%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.36%
- Stage-1 years
- 9 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Mature
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Mature horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Mature
- Quality premium
- 1.072×
- Anchor correction
- peer anchor 36.6x diverges 0.4x from 7yr own-history 15.8x (no size-comparable peer) — anchor blended 0.6 toward own-history → 24.1x
- Term: quality
- -5.1%
- Term: growth
- -22.2%
- Term: capital_allocation
- -4.4%
- Term: financial_strength
- +8.2%
- Term: history
- -10.4%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
peer-anchor mismatch — deep own-history used instead
quality 45/100 (weak/erratic returns) → discount
weak ~-1% CAGR (ROCE 18% > hurdle) → discount
capital allocation: falling ROCE / weak cash generation → discount
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.2) → mild premium
history: market paid -35% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.521
- Premium vs sector
- -30.8%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 81%
- Fair P/E
- 16.69×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Aurobindo Pharma Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Aurobindo Pharma Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.