BALRAMPUR CHINI MILLS LTD Valuation
BALRAMCHIN · Fast Moving Consumer Goods · Current price ₹716
Is BALRAMPUR CHINI MILLS LTD undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of BALRAMPUR CHINI MILLS LTD at ₹272 per share, against a market price of ₹691. That puts the share price about -60.7% above our estimate, at medium confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹280), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹254). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for BALRAMPUR CHINI MILLS LTD spans ₹245 to ₹299. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
Valuation multiples
BALRAMPUR CHINI MILLS LTD trades at a P/E of 27.2x and a P/B of 3.3x, with a dividend yield of 0.5%. Multiples are most useful compared against the company's own history and its sector peers — see the peer comparison for context.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for BALRAMPUR CHINI MILLS LTD. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹245 – ₹299
Why this method for this business
The DCF model is appropriate for a mature, asset-light business with stable cash flows, while the relative P/E model captures market sentiment and peer comparisons. The PEG model is excluded due to weak growth expectations and limited forward estimates.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFF path
- peg: weak growth expectations and limited forward estimates make it unsuitable for this business
What was missing
- Limited forward analyst estimates
- No clear indication of sustainable ROE
- Uncertainty around EBITDA margin normalization
What drives it
27 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 551 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 3,169.6 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 21.73×
- Peers used
- 10
- EPS (TTM)
- 18.28 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 21.49×
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
total_debt − cash
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Discount rate (r)
- 11.45%
- Beta
- 0.8
WACC (computed)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 4.89%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 4.89%
- Stage-1 years
- 8 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Mature
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Mature horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Mature
- Quality premium
- 0.979×
- Term: quality
- -11.9%
- Term: growth
- -19.0%
- Term: capital_allocation
- -11.2%
- Term: financial_strength
- +0.1%
- Term: history
- -0.3%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat None + capital allocation
quality 31/100 (weak/erratic returns) → discount
weak ~0% CAGR (ROCE 13% > hurdle) → discount
capital allocation: falling ROCE / weak cash generation → discount
financial strength: moderate leverage (D/E 0.8) → neutral
history: market paid -1% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFF
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.616
- Premium vs sector
- -36.0%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 86%
- Fair P/E
- 13.9×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for BALRAMPUR CHINI MILLS LTD: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyUnderstand the ratios
More on BALRAMPUR CHINI MILLS LTD
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.