Bharat Dynamics Limited DCF Valuation
BDL · Capital Goods · Current price ₹1,114.7
Bharat Dynamics Limited cash-flow valuation
Our discounted cash flow (2-stage) values Bharat Dynamics Limited at ₹147 per share. implied value is <0.2× the price (likely a data error). A discounted cash flow is only as good as the cash-flow path it assumes, so the assumptions behind it are listed in full below.
Try your own assumptions
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How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Bharat Dynamics Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹451 – ₹551
Why this method for this business
BDL is a capital-intensive aerospace and defense company with strong government contracts and a durable moat. DCF and EV/EBITDA are appropriate for assessing its value, while relative PE provides a sector benchmark.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
implied value is <0.2× the price (likely a data error)
required inputs missing
- Fair multiple (P/E) was used but not weighted heavily due to the capital-intensive nature of the business and the need for a more comprehensive valuation approach.
What was missing
- Lack of detailed information on specific contracts and project timelines
- Limited analyst coverage for precise valuation inputs
What drives it
15 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- Sector-median P/E
- 42.45×
- Peers used
- 5
- EPS (TTM)
- 14.21 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 22.66×
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Term: quality
- -2.0%
- Term: growth
- -0.9%
- Term: capital_allocation
- -8.5%
- Term: financial_strength
- +7.3%
- Term: history
- -14.0%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
quality 51/100 (weak/erratic returns) → discount
~8% CAGR (ROCE 26% > hurdle) → neutral
capital allocation: falling ROCE / weak cash generation → discount
financial strength: effectively debt-free → premium
history: market paid -47% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Premium vs sector
- -17.0%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 73%
- Fair P/E
- 35.23×
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Bharat Dynamics Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Bharat Dynamics Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.