Blue Dart Express Limited DCF Valuation
BLUEDART · Services · Current price ₹4,497
Blue Dart Express Limited cash-flow valuation
Our discounted cash flow (2-stage) values Blue Dart Express Limited at ₹2,452 per share. Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path. It carries 40% of the weight in our published estimate of ₹4,969. A discounted cash flow is only as good as the cash-flow path it assumes, so the assumptions behind it are listed in full below.
Try your own assumptions
Prefer to build the discounted cash flow yourself? The DCF calculator below opens pre-filled with Blue Dart Express Limited's reported free cash flow, net debt and share count, so you can set your own growth and discount rate.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Blue Dart Express Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹2,982 – ₹6,622
Why this method for this business
Blue Dart is an asset-light logistics provider with durable earnings power and a wide moat, making DCF and relative PE appropriate. Residual income complements these models by capturing book value and return on equity.
The models behind the number
These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their plain midpoint rather than a weighted blend. The disagreement is itself the finding.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
downweighted: 58% from committee consensus (₹4180)
Book value plus the present value of returns earned above the 10.6% cost of equity
- Discounted cash flow (2-stage) is already used, but we refine it with a more conservative growth assumption. We exclude residual income for its limited relevance to a high-growth logistics business.
What was missing
- Lack of detailed information on capital allocation and debt structure
- Limited analyst coverage for precise forward EPS estimates
What drives it
32 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 370 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 1,142 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 31.1×
- Peers used
- 5
- EPS (TTM)
- 120.98 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 47.14×
- ROE (normalized)
- 23.6%
- Book value / share
- 749 ₹
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
computed
reported
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
- Cost of equity
- 10.6%
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
building-block
- Stage-1 start growth
- 14%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.33%
- Stage-1 years
- 9 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Mature
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Mature horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Mature
- Quality premium
- 1.066×
- Term: quality
- +3.2%
- Term: growth
- +33.3%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +1.3%
- Term: financial_strength
- +8.0%
- Term: history
- +15.5%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
- Moat
- Wide
- Excess-return horizon
- 20 yrs
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
quality 62/100 (high, stable returns) → premium
durable ~16% CAGR (ROCE 19% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: steady → neutral
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.3) → mild premium
history: market paid +52% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
computed
computed
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.503
- Premium vs sector
- +76.0%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 82%
- Fair P/E
- 54.74×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Blue Dart Express Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Blue Dart Express Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.