CCL Products (India) Limited Intrinsic Value
CCL · Fast Moving Consumer Goods · Current price ₹1,091.5
Is CCL Products (India) Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of CCL Products (India) Limited at ₹1,479 per share, against a market price of ₹1,081. That puts the share price about +36.8% below our estimate, at low confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Normalized earnings (mid-cycle EV/EBITDA) (₹1,816), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹811). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for CCL Products (India) Limited spans ₹888 to ₹1,816. That range is wide, which is the honest signal here: read the range rather than the single number. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
Margin of safety
Value investors look for a margin of safety: a discount to estimated value that absorbs being wrong. At ₹1,081 against an estimated value of ₹1,479, CCL Products (India) Limited trades at +36.8%, i.e. a discount to our estimate. How much margin to demand depends on how much you trust the inputs, which is what the confidence band below is for.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for CCL Products (India) Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹888 – ₹1,816
Why this method for this business
Normalized earnings and relative PE are the most appropriate models for an asset-light, branded consumer franchise like CCL, which generates durable cash flows and has a strong moat.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Cyclical valued off mid-cycle earnings and a through-cycle EV/EBITDA (§6.6)
- ev_ebitda was excluded due to insufficient data quality and relevance for a consumer goods business
What was missing
- Lack of forward EPS estimates for more precise modeling
- Limited peer data for relative PE analysis
What drives it
22 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- Revenue (TTM)
- 4,457 ₹ cr
- Net debt
- 1,107.5 ₹ cr
- Shares outstanding
- 13,34,26,313
- Sector-median P/E
- 14.6×
- Peers used
- 15
- EPS (TTM)
- 32.39 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 26.28×
computed
computed
computed
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- EBITDA margin (cycle median)
- 18%
- Through-cycle EV/EBITDA
- 31.59×
computed (≤5y median)
own-history (median of 3y)
- Term: quality
- +2.5%
- Term: growth
- +40.0%
- Term: capital_allocation
- -8.0%
- Term: financial_strength
- +3.4%
- Term: history
- +24.0%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
quality 65/100 (high, stable returns) → premium (ROCE deteriorating → premium halved)
durable ~23% CAGR (ROCE 17% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: falling ROCE / weak cash generation → discount
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.5) → mild premium
history: market paid +80% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Mid-cycle EBITDA
- 802.3 ₹ cr
- Enterprise value
- 25,344.3 ₹ cr
- Premium vs sector
- +71.4%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 84%
- Fair P/E
- 25.03×
computed
computed
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for CCL Products (India) Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on CCL Products (India) Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.