Central Depository Services (India) Limited Intrinsic Value
CDSL · Financial Services · Current price ₹1,286.9
Is Central Depository Services (India) Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Central Depository Services (India) Limited at ₹1,091 per share, against a market price of ₹1,360. That puts the share price about -19.8% above our estimate, at low confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Fair multiple (P/E) (₹1,691), Residual income (excess return on book) (₹490). These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their midpoint rather than a weighted blend, and the disagreement is part of the finding. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Central Depository Services (India) Limited spans ₹490 to ₹1,691. That range is wide, which is the honest signal here: read the range rather than the single number. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
Margin of safety
Value investors look for a margin of safety: a discount to estimated value that absorbs being wrong. At ₹1,360 against an estimated value of ₹1,091, Central Depository Services (India) Limited trades at -19.8%, i.e. a premium to our estimate. How much margin to demand depends on how much you trust the inputs, which is what the confidence band below is for.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Central Depository Services (India) Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹490 – ₹1,691
Why this method for this business
CDSL is a financial services entity with a durable moat and stable cash flows, making relative PE and residual income models appropriate. DCF is less suitable due to the nature of its business and the difficulty in forecasting its cash flows.
The models behind the number
These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their plain midpoint rather than a weighted blend. The disagreement is itself the finding.
Book value plus the present value of returns earned above the 10.6% cost of equity
- dcf: Not suitable for a financial services entity with stable cash flows and a regulatory environment that limits leverage and growth assumptions.
What was missing
- Lack of forward EPS estimates
- Limited historical data on cybersecurity incidents
What drives it
20 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- Sector-median P/E
- 43.63×
- Peers used
- 3
- EPS (TTM)
- 22.55 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 68.41×
- ROE (normalized)
- 31.4%
- Book value / share
- 93.8 ₹
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
computed
reported
- Cost of equity
- 10.6%
building-block
- Term: quality
- +17.5%
- Term: growth
- +40.0%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +15.0%
- Term: financial_strength
- +10.0%
- Term: history
- +17.0%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
- Moat
- Wide
- Excess-return horizon
- 20 yrs
quality 90/100 (high, stable returns) → premium
durable ~22% CAGR (ROCE 30% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: effectively debt-free → premium
history: market paid +57% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
computed
computed
- Premium vs sector
- +71.9%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 79%
- Fair P/E
- 75×
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Central Depository Services (India) Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Central Depository Services (India) Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.