Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited Fair Value
CHENNPETRO · Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels · Current price ₹1,409.9
Is Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited at ₹2,695 per share, against a market price of ₹1,573. That puts the share price about +71.3% below our estimate, at medium confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹2,800), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹2,371). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited spans ₹2,371 to ₹2,964. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹2,371 – ₹2,964
Why this method for this business
DCF and relative PE are the most appropriate models for valuing a refinery and marketing business, which is capital-intensive but has durable cash flows and a strong moat.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
- ev_ebitda is not used due to lack of reliable EBITDA multiples for the sector and the need for more granular data on capital expenditures and working capital changes.
What was missing
- Lack of detailed capital expenditure and working capital data
- Limited analyst coverage for precise EBITDA multiples
- Insufficient data on long-term regulatory changes
What drives it
27 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 2,045 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 1,059 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 4.98×
- Peers used
- 4
- EPS (TTM)
- 280.3 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 5.36×
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
total_debt − cash
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 20%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.42%
- Stage-1 years
- 10 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Growth
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Growth horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Growth
- Quality premium
- 1.084×
- Term: quality
- +0.9%
- Term: growth
- +40.0%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +9.6%
- Term: financial_strength
- +6.0%
- Term: history
- +2.3%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
quality 57/100 (about average) → neutral
durable ~44% CAGR (ROCE 20% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.2) → mild premium
history: market paid +8% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.492
- Premium vs sector
- +69.9%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 80%
- Fair P/E
- 8.46×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.