Coal India Limited Valuation
COALINDIA · Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels · Current price ₹417.2
Is Coal India Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Coal India Limited at ₹439 per share, against a market price of ₹426. That puts the share price about +3.0% below our estimate, at low confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Normalized earnings (mid-cycle EV/EBITDA) (₹396), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹729). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Coal India Limited spans ₹395 to ₹483. That range is wide, which is the honest signal here: read the range rather than the single number. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
Valuation multiples
Coal India Limited trades at a P/E of 8.3x and a P/B of 2.2x, with a dividend yield of 1.3%. Multiples are most useful compared against the company's own history and its sector peers — see the peer comparison for context.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Coal India Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹395 – ₹483
Why this method for this business
Coal India is a cyclical business, so normalized mid-cycle earnings and EV/EBITDA are the most appropriate models. Relative PE is used to capture sector-specific multiple dynamics.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Cyclical valued off mid-cycle earnings and a through-cycle EV/EBITDA (§6.6)
required inputs missing
- DCF is not suitable for a capital-intensive business with volatile cash flows
- Book value is not relevant for a cyclical business
- Revenue multiples are not appropriate for a commodity-based business
What was missing
- Lack of forward-looking analyst estimates for EBITDA and EPS
- Limited data on capital allocation efficiency
- No data on the impact of renewable energy transition on coal demand
What drives it
23 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- Revenue (TTM)
- 1,68,400 ₹ cr
- Net debt
- 5,452.3 ₹ cr
- Shares outstanding
- 6,16,26,91,931
- Sector-median P/E
- 13.84×
- Peers used
- 4
- EPS (TTM)
- 50.63 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 6.5×
computed
computed
computed
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- EBITDA margin (cycle median)
- 25%
- Through-cycle EV/EBITDA
- 5.92×
computed (≤5y median)
own-history (median of 5y)
- Anchor correction
- peer anchor 13.8x diverges 0.5x from 7yr own-history 6.5x (no size-comparable peer) — anchor blended 0.6 toward own-history → 9.4x
- Term: quality
- +9.3%
- Term: growth
- +33.9%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +4.7%
- Term: financial_strength
- +8.5%
- Term: history
- -9.3%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
peer-anchor mismatch — deep own-history used instead
quality 74/100 (high, stable returns) → premium
durable ~16% CAGR (ROCE 54% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: effectively debt-free → premium
history: market paid -31% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Mid-cycle EBITDA
- 42,100 ₹ cr
- Enterprise value
- 2,49,261.5 ₹ cr
- Premium vs sector
- +52.7%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 76%
- Fair P/E
- 14.4×
computed
computed
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Coal India Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyUnderstand the ratios
More on Coal India Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.