Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited Intrinsic Value
GNFC · Chemicals · Current price ₹566
Is Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited at ₹484 per share, against a market price of ₹562. That puts the share price about -13.9% above our estimate, at medium confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 1 method: Normalized earnings (mid-cycle EV/EBITDA) (₹484). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited spans ₹436 to ₹533. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
Margin of safety
Value investors look for a margin of safety: a discount to estimated value that absorbs being wrong. At ₹562 against an estimated value of ₹484, Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited trades at -13.9%, i.e. a premium to our estimate. How much margin to demand depends on how much you trust the inputs, which is what the confidence band below is for.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹436 – ₹533
Why this method for this business
GNFC is a cyclical commodity chemical company, and its valuation should be based on normalized mid-cycle earnings and a through-cycle EV/EBITDA multiple. These models are appropriate for its industry and business model.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Cyclical valued off mid-cycle earnings and a through-cycle EV/EBITDA (§6.6)
required inputs missing
- relative_pe: Not used as it is not suitable for cyclical businesses
- discounted_cash_flow: Not used as it is not appropriate for a commodity chemical company with volatile cash flows
What was missing
- Forward estimates
- Detailed information on the company's production costs
- Information on the company's exchange rate exposure
What drives it
8 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- Revenue (TTM)
- 7,773 ₹ cr
- Net debt
- 5 ₹ cr
- Shares outstanding
- 14,69,39,528
computed
computed
computed
- EBITDA margin (cycle median)
- 11%
- Through-cycle EV/EBITDA
- 8.33×
computed (≤5y median)
own-history (median of 5y)
- Mid-cycle EBITDA
- 855 ₹ cr
- Enterprise value
- 7,121.5 ₹ cr
- Net debt basis
- gross (cash unavailable)
computed
computed
note: net debt approximated by gross debt (cash unavailable)
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.