Gujarat Pipavav Port Limited Fair Value
GPPL · Services · Current price ₹167.09
Is Gujarat Pipavav Port Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Gujarat Pipavav Port Limited at ₹195 per share, against a market price of ₹161. That puts the share price about +20.9% below our estimate, at low confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 3 methods: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹97), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹307), Residual income (excess return on book) (₹67). These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their midpoint rather than a weighted blend, and the disagreement is part of the finding. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Gujarat Pipavav Port Limited spans ₹117 to ₹214. That range is wide, which is the honest signal here: read the range rather than the single number. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Gujarat Pipavav Port Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹117 – ₹214
Why this method for this business
The DCF model is appropriate for a port with stable cash flows and long-term growth potential. The relative PE model captures market sentiment and peer comparisons, while residual income reflects the company's ability to generate returns above the cost of equity.
The models behind the number
These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their plain midpoint rather than a weighted blend. The disagreement is itself the finding.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
kept despite sitting outside the ₹97-median band — ₹97 from another model is within 3.2×, so this is genuine disagreement, not a broken model; downweighted: 216% from committee consensus (₹97)
Book value plus the present value of returns earned above the 10.6% cost of equity
- Discounted cash flow (2-stage) is the primary model, and others are used for cross-validation. No other models are relevant for a port with stable cash flows and long-term growth potential.
What was missing
- Lack of detailed information on specific cargo types and their growth potential
- Limited forward estimates for certain metrics
What drives it
32 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 329 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 37 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 14.6×
- Peers used
- 3
- EPS (TTM)
- 11.55 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 17.97×
- ROE (normalized)
- 14.8%
- Book value / share
- 49.4 ₹
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
computed
reported
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
- Cost of equity
- 10.6%
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
building-block
- Stage-1 start growth
- 10%
- Fade shape
- gentle
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.4%
- Stage-1 years
- 9 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Cash-Cow
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Cash-Cow horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Cash-Cow
- Quality premium
- 1.079×
- Term: quality
- +7.5%
- Term: growth
- +23.8%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +15.0%
- Term: financial_strength
- +10.0%
- Term: history
- +6.9%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
- Moat
- Narrow
- Excess-return horizon
- 10 yrs
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
quality 70/100 (high, stable returns) → premium
durable ~14% CAGR (ROCE 17% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: effectively debt-free → premium
history: market paid +23% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
computed
computed
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.499
- Premium vs sector
- +82.2%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 79%
- Fair P/E
- 26.6×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Gujarat Pipavav Port Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Gujarat Pipavav Port Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.