Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited Fair Value
GSFC · Chemicals · Current price ₹149.7
Is Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited at ₹150 per share, against a market price of ₹156. That puts the share price about -3.8% above our estimate, at medium confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 1 method: Normalized earnings (mid-cycle EV/EBITDA) (₹150). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited spans ₹135 to ₹165. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹135 – ₹165
Why this method for this business
As a cyclical in the fertilizers sector, normalized mid-cycle earnings and EV/EBITDA are the most appropriate models. The EV/EBITDA model is particularly relevant given the capital intensity and cyclicality of the business.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Cyclical valued off mid-cycle earnings and a through-cycle EV/EBITDA (§6.6)
required inputs missing
- DCF is not suitable for a cyclical commodity business like fertilizers
- Book value is not relevant for a capital-intensive business
- P/E is not appropriate for a cyclical business
What was missing
- Forward-looking estimates
- Detailed analysis of the moat
- Sector-specific discount rates
What drives it
8 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- Revenue (TTM)
- 10,946 ₹ cr
- Net debt
- 27 ₹ cr
- Shares outstanding
- 39,87,76,758
computed
computed
computed
- EBITDA margin (cycle median)
- 7%
- Through-cycle EV/EBITDA
- 7.84×
computed (≤5y median)
own-history (median of 5y)
- Mid-cycle EBITDA
- 766.2 ₹ cr
- Enterprise value
- 6,005.7 ₹ cr
- Net debt basis
- gross (cash unavailable)
computed
computed
note: net debt approximated by gross debt (cash unavailable)
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.