INDRAPRASTHA GAS LTD Fair Value
IGL · Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels · Current price ₹144.6
Is INDRAPRASTHA GAS LTD undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of INDRAPRASTHA GAS LTD at ₹260 per share, against a market price of ₹152. That puts the share price about +71.1% below our estimate, at low confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹53), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹467). These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their midpoint rather than a weighted blend, and the disagreement is part of the finding. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for INDRAPRASTHA GAS LTD spans ₹91 to ₹467. That range is wide, which is the honest signal here: read the range rather than the single number. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for INDRAPRASTHA GAS LTD. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹91 – ₹467
Why this method for this business
The business is capital-intensive and cyclical, so DCF and EV/EBITDA are appropriate. Relative PE is used to anchor the multiple against peers.
The models behind the number
These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their plain midpoint rather than a weighted blend. The disagreement is itself the finding.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
required inputs missing
- Discounted cash flow (2-stage) is used as the primary model, but EV/EBITDA and relative PE are also included for cross-validation. Other models are not applicable due to the nature of the business and data availability.
What was missing
- Lack of detailed information on long-term gas supply contracts
- Limited analyst coverage for precise forward EPS estimates
- Insufficient data on the impact of regulatory changes on pricing
What drives it
28 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 624 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 98 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 12.82×
- Peers used
- 4
- EPS (TTM)
- 9.72 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 34.78×
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 5.65%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.38%
- Stage-1 years
- 9 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Mature
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Mature horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Mature
- Quality premium
- 1.076×
- Anchor correction
- peer anchor 12.8x diverges 2.7x from 7yr own-history 34.8x (no size-comparable peer) — anchor blended 0.6 toward own-history → 26.0x
- Term: quality
- +10.6%
- Term: growth
- +32.8%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +2.6%
- Term: financial_strength
- +10.0%
- Term: history
- +10.1%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
peer-anchor mismatch — deep own-history used instead
quality 76/100 (high, stable returns) → premium
durable ~16% CAGR (ROCE 28% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: effectively debt-free → premium
history: market paid +34% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.478
- Premium vs sector
- +84.7%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 80%
- Fair P/E
- 48.02×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for INDRAPRASTHA GAS LTD: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on INDRAPRASTHA GAS LTD
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.