Indian Oil Corporation Limited Fair Value
IOC · Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels · Current price ₹130.38
Is Indian Oil Corporation Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Indian Oil Corporation Limited at ₹321 per share, against a market price of ₹135. That puts the share price about +137.6% below our estimate, at low confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹342), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹194). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Indian Oil Corporation Limited spans ₹289 to ₹353. That range is wide, which is the honest signal here: read the range rather than the single number. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Indian Oil Corporation Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹289 – ₹353
Why this method for this business
IOC is a capital-intensive, cyclical business with strong pricing power and a dominant market position. DCF captures intrinsic value, EV/EBITDA reflects capital structure, and relative PE benchmarks against peers.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
required inputs missing
- Discounted cash flow (2-stage) is primary for asset-heavy businesses like IOC, but EV/EBITDA and relative PE are also relevant for valuation. Other models like P/B or P/FCF are less suitable for a cyclical, capital-intensive business like IOC.
What was missing
- Lack of forward EBITDA estimates
- Limited analyst coverage for forward-looking scenarios
- Insufficient data on long-term supply chain risks
What drives it
27 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 28,621 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 1,31,822 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 5.44×
- Peers used
- 5
- EPS (TTM)
- 23.84 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 6.34×
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 14.95%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.4%
- Stage-1 years
- 10 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Growth
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Growth horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Growth
- Quality premium
- 1.08×
- Term: quality
- +0.5%
- Term: growth
- +31.1%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +2.9%
- Term: financial_strength
- +3.8%
- Term: history
- +4.9%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
quality 56/100 (about average) → neutral
durable ~16% CAGR (ROCE 16% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.6) → mild premium
history: market paid +16% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.475
- Premium vs sector
- +49.6%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 82%
- Fair P/E
- 8.14×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Indian Oil Corporation Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Indian Oil Corporation Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.