Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Limited Fair Value
MHRIL · Consumer Services · Current price ₹200.59
Is Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Limited at ₹109 per share, against a market price of ₹197. That puts the share price about -44.6% above our estimate, at high confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹116), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹90). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Limited spans ₹90 to ₹119. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The models agree and the inputs are well covered. Treat this as our firmest estimate.
Estimate range ₹90 – ₹119
Why this method for this business
The DCF model is appropriate for a mature, asset-light business with predictable cash flows, while the relative PE model aligns with the sector's valuation multiples. The residual income model is excluded due to its inapplicability to a cyclical and earnings-driven business.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
- residual_income: Inappropriate for a cyclical, earnings-driven business with volatile cash flows and no clear book value premium.
What was missing
- Lack of forward-looking analyst estimates for more precise DCF modeling
- Limited data on the company's long-term growth prospects beyond the forecast period
What drives it
27 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 229 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 3,793.1 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 34.78×
- Peers used
- 10
- EPS (TTM)
- 2.62 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 65.76×
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
total_debt − cash
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 4.9%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 4.9%
- Stage-1 years
- 8 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Mature
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Mature horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Mature
- Quality premium
- 0.98×
- Term: quality
- -6.6%
- Term: growth
- -16.2%
- Term: capital_allocation
- -4.4%
- Term: financial_strength
- +4.8%
- Term: history
- +25.0%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat None + capital allocation
quality 42/100 (weak/erratic returns) → discount
weak ~-18% CAGR (ROCE 10% < 12% hurdle (growth not value-accretive)) → discount
capital allocation: falling ROCE / weak cash generation → discount
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.7) → mild premium
history: market paid +89% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.5
- Premium vs sector
- -0.8%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 71%
- Fair P/E
- 34.5×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 15 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.