Mishra Dhatu Nigam Limited Intrinsic Value
MIDHANI · Capital Goods · Current price ₹420
Is Mishra Dhatu Nigam Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Mishra Dhatu Nigam Limited at ₹192 per share, against a market price of ₹447. That puts the share price about -57.1% above our estimate, at medium confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 1 method: Fair multiple (P/E) (₹192). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Mishra Dhatu Nigam Limited spans ₹172 to ₹211. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
Margin of safety
Value investors look for a margin of safety: a discount to estimated value that absorbs being wrong. At ₹447 against an estimated value of ₹192, Mishra Dhatu Nigam Limited trades at -57.1%, i.e. a premium to our estimate. How much margin to demand depends on how much you trust the inputs, which is what the confidence band below is for.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Mishra Dhatu Nigam Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹172 – ₹211
Why this method for this business
MIDHANI is a capital-intensive aerospace and defense manufacturer with strong government ties, making EV/EBITDA and relative P/E the most relevant models. DCF is less suitable due to the sector's cyclicality and the company's reliance on long-term contracts.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
required inputs missing
- dcf: Cyclicality and long-term contract reliance make DCF less reliable for valuation
- relative_pe: Already used as the primary model, but EV/EBITDA adds a complementary lens
What was missing
- Lack of detailed information on specific contract terms and revenue visibility
- Limited analyst coverage and dispersion in earnings estimates
What drives it
15 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- Sector-median P/E
- 39.67×
- Peers used
- 4
- EPS (TTM)
- 7.17 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 20.81×
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Term: quality
- -4.1%
- Term: growth
- -15.4%
- Term: capital_allocation
- -9.0%
- Term: financial_strength
- +5.1%
- Term: history
- -14.3%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
quality 47/100 (weak/erratic returns) → discount
weak ~2% CAGR (ROCE 21% > hurdle) → discount
capital allocation: falling ROCE / weak cash generation → discount
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.3) → mild premium
history: market paid -48% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Premium vs sector
- -32.6%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 76%
- Fair P/E
- 26.72×
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Mishra Dhatu Nigam Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Mishra Dhatu Nigam Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.