Mstc Limited Intrinsic Value
MSTCLTD · Services · Current price ₹646.7
Is Mstc Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Mstc Limited at ₹544 per share, against a market price of ₹739. That puts the share price about -26.3% above our estimate, at medium confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Residual income (excess return on book) (₹857), Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹402). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Mstc Limited spans ₹402 to ₹857. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
Margin of safety
Value investors look for a margin of safety: a discount to estimated value that absorbs being wrong. At ₹739 against an estimated value of ₹544, Mstc Limited trades at -26.3%, i.e. a premium to our estimate. How much margin to demand depends on how much you trust the inputs, which is what the confidence band below is for.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Mstc Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹402 – ₹857
Why this method for this business
Residual income and DCF are appropriate for a PSU with stable cash flows and book value relevance, despite its trading nature. These models capture the value of its capital base and earnings power.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Book value plus the present value of returns earned above the 10.6% cost of equity
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
- relative_pe
- other models not applicable for a PSU with low earnings volatility and high book value relevance
What was missing
- Forward estimates
- Detailed analysis of regulatory risks
- Recent news impact on export activities
What drives it
17 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 236 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 145 ₹cr
- ROE (normalized)
- 32.8%
- Book value / share
- 128 ₹
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
computed
reported
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
- Cost of equity
- 10.6%
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
building-block
- Stage-1 start growth
- 6%
- Fade shape
- gentle
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.38%
- Stage-1 years
- 9 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Declining
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Declining horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Declining
- Quality premium
- 1.076×
- Moat
- Wide
- Excess-return horizon
- 20 yrs
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
computed
computed
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.48
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Mstc Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Mstc Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.