Oil India Limited Fair Value
OIL · Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels · Current price ₹445
Is Oil India Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Oil India Limited at ₹748 per share, against a market price of ₹490. That puts the share price about +52.7% below our estimate, at low confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹614), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹1,096). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Oil India Limited spans ₹614 to ₹1,096. That range is wide, which is the honest signal here: read the range rather than the single number. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Oil India Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹614 – ₹1,096
Why this method for this business
DCF and relative PE are the most appropriate models for valuing an oil and gas producer with a durable moat and stable cash flows. DCF captures intrinsic value, while relative PE aligns with sector multiples.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
- ev_ebitda is not used due to lack of reliable EBITDA multiples for the sector and the unique capital intensity of oil and gas operations.
What was missing
- Lack of reliable sector-specific EBITDA multiples
- Limited forward analyst estimates for certain periods
What drives it
28 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 7,005 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 37,478 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 31.74×
- Peers used
- 3
- EPS (TTM)
- 51.36 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 6.9×
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 12.74%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 4.97%
- Stage-1 years
- 8 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Mature
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Mature horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Mature
- Quality premium
- 0.993×
- Anchor correction
- peer anchor 31.7x diverges 0.2x from 7yr own-history 6.9x (no size-comparable peer) — anchor blended 0.6 toward own-history → 16.8x
- Term: quality
- +0.8%
- Term: growth
- +21.5%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +15.0%
- Term: financial_strength
- +8.1%
- Term: history
- -17.7%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat None + capital allocation
peer-anchor mismatch — deep own-history used instead
quality 56/100 (about average) → neutral
durable ~13% CAGR (ROCE 13% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.3) → mild premium
history: market paid -59% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.523
- Premium vs sector
- +26.7%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 69%
- Fair P/E
- 21.33×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Oil India Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Oil India Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.