Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited DCF Valuation
ONGC · Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels · Current price ₹222
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited cash-flow valuation
Our discounted cash flow (2-stage) values Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited at ₹646 per share. Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path. It carries 70% of the weight in our published estimate of ₹701. A discounted cash flow is only as good as the cash-flow path it assumes, so the assumptions behind it are listed in full below.
Try your own assumptions
Prefer to build the discounted cash flow yourself? The DCF calculator below opens pre-filled with Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited's reported free cash flow, net debt and share count, so you can set your own growth and discount rate.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹631 – ₹845
Why this method for this business
ONGC is an asset-heavy, capital-intensive business with high barriers to entry and long-term cash flow generation. DCF is appropriate for capturing its intrinsic value, while relative PE provides a market-based multiple for comparison.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
- ev_ebitda is not used due to lack of clear EBITDA normalization and the need for a more precise valuation method for an oil and gas company.
What was missing
- Lack of detailed EBITDA normalization data
- Limited analyst coverage for precise multiple estimation
- Insufficient forward-looking data for DCF modeling
What drives it
28 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 42,427 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 1,74,316 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 31.74×
- Peers used
- 3
- EPS (TTM)
- 34.59 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 7.88×
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 18.44%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.36%
- Stage-1 years
- 10 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Growth
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Growth horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Growth
- Quality premium
- 1.073×
- Anchor correction
- peer anchor 31.7x diverges 0.2x from 7yr own-history 7.9x (no size-comparable peer) — anchor blended 0.6 toward own-history → 17.4x
- Term: quality
- +1.9%
- Term: growth
- +38.6%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +7.1%
- Term: financial_strength
- +9.5%
- Term: history
- -16.4%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
peer-anchor mismatch — deep own-history used instead
quality 59/100 (about average) → neutral
durable ~18% CAGR (ROCE 14% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.1) → mild premium
history: market paid -55% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.485
- Premium vs sector
- +40.2%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 71%
- Fair P/E
- 24.42×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.