Orkla India Limited Fair Value
ORKLAINDIA · Fast Moving Consumer Goods · Current price ₹552.45
Is Orkla India Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Orkla India Limited at ₹399 per share, against a market price of ₹591. That puts the share price about -32.5% above our estimate, at high confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹401), PEG (growth-implied P/E) (₹395). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Orkla India Limited spans ₹360 to ₹439. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Orkla India Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The models agree and the inputs are well covered. Treat this as our firmest estimate.
Estimate range ₹360 – ₹439
Why this method for this business
The DCF and PEG models are most appropriate for an asset-light FMCG business with a durable moat and stable earnings power. The relative PE model was rejected due to data anomalies.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
- relative_pe was rejected due to a gross outlier and likely data error
- DCF is primary for asset-light compounders with normalized earnings and a durable moat
What was missing
- Lack of forward EPS data for more precise PEG modeling
- Limited insight into brand equity and moat durability beyond historical performance
What drives it
15 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 238 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 40.1 ₹cr
- Earnings growth
- 18.4% CAGR
- EPS (TTM)
- 21.49 ₹/share
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
total_debt − cash
computed
computed
- Discount rate (r)
- 12.9%
- Beta
- 0.8
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 18.38%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.3%
- Stage-1 years
- 10 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Growth
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Growth horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Growth
- Quality premium
- 1.06×
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.543
- Growth-implied P/E
- 18.4×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
min(growth, 30)
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Orkla India Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Orkla India Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.