Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Limited DCF Valuation
PARKHOTELS · Consumer Services · Current price ₹106.28
Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Limited cash-flow valuation
Our residual income (excess return on book) values Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Limited at ₹57 per share. Book value plus the present value of returns earned above the 10.6% cost of equity. It carries 40% of the weight in our published estimate of ₹97. A discounted cash flow is only as good as the cash-flow path it assumes, so the assumptions behind it are listed in full below.
Try your own assumptions
Prefer to build the discounted cash flow yourself? The DCF calculator below opens pre-filled with Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Limited's reported free cash flow, net debt and share count, so you can set your own growth and discount rate.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹58 – ₹120
Why this method for this business
Relative PE and residual income models are most appropriate for a hotel business with a narrow moat and cyclical earnings patterns. DCF is less suitable due to the high sensitivity to discount rates and terminal growth assumptions.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Book value plus the present value of returns earned above the 10.6% cost of equity
- dcf
- DCF is less suitable for a cyclical business like hospitality, where earnings are highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions and demand fluctuations.
What was missing
- Lack of forward-looking analyst estimates for key metrics
- Limited data on brand strength and competitive positioning
What drives it
20 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- Sector-median P/E
- 31.51×
- Peers used
- 14
- EPS (TTM)
- 2.99 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 37.24×
- ROE (normalized)
- 6.8%
- Book value / share
- 62.9 ₹
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
computed
reported
- Cost of equity
- 10.6%
building-block
- Term: quality
- -7.9%
- Term: growth
- +6.0%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +13.3%
- Term: financial_strength
- +7.9%
- Term: history
- +5.5%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
- Moat
- None
- Excess-return horizon
- 3 yrs
quality 39/100 (weak/erratic returns) → discount
durable ~14% CAGR (ROCE 8% < 12% hurdle (growth not value-accretive)) → premium
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.2) → mild premium
history: market paid +18% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
computed
computed
- Premium vs sector
- +27.5%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 80%
- Fair P/E
- 40.17×
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 15 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.