Sirca Paints India Limited Fair Value
SIRCA · Consumer Durables · Current price ₹427.05
Is Sirca Paints India Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Sirca Paints India Limited at ₹338 per share, against a market price of ₹427. That puts the share price about -20.9% above our estimate, at medium confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Fair multiple (P/E) (₹403), PEG (growth-implied P/E) (₹144). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Sirca Paints India Limited spans ₹203 to ₹403. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Sirca Paints India Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹203 – ₹403
Why this method for this business
Relative P/E and PEG are appropriate for an asset-light, branded consumer business with durable earnings power and a narrow moat. DCF is not suitable due to the lack of clear cash flow patterns and the sensitivity of the valuation to discount rates.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
- dcf: Not suitable for a consumer discretionary business with uncertain cash flow patterns and high sensitivity to discount rates
What was missing
- Lack of forward-looking analyst estimates for more precise growth assumptions
- Limited data on brand strength and customer loyalty metrics
What drives it
17 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- Sector-median P/E
- 21.43×
- Peers used
- 4
- EPS (TTM)
- 11.81 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 32.57×
- Earnings growth
- 12.2% CAGR
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
computed
- Term: quality
- +1.6%
- Term: growth
- +40.0%
- Term: capital_allocation
- -9.8%
- Term: financial_strength
- +6.1%
- Term: history
- +15.6%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
quality 62/100 (high, stable returns) → premium (ROCE deteriorating → premium halved)
durable ~30% CAGR (ROCE 24% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: falling ROCE / weak cash generation → discount
financial strength: effectively debt-free → premium
history: market paid +52% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Premium vs sector
- +59.2%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 76%
- Fair P/E
- 34.12×
- Growth-implied P/E
- 12.2×
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
min(growth, 30)
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Sirca Paints India Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 15 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Sirca Paints India Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.