UPL LIMITED Fair Value
UPL · Chemicals · Current price ₹534.65
Is UPL LIMITED undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of UPL LIMITED at ₹586 per share, against a market price of ₹573. That puts the share price about +2.3% below our estimate, at low confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Normalized earnings (mid-cycle EV/EBITDA) (₹632), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹350). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for UPL LIMITED spans ₹527 to ₹644. That range is wide, which is the honest signal here: read the range rather than the single number. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for UPL LIMITED. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹527 – ₹644
Why this method for this business
UPL is a cyclical commodity player with a narrow moat, so normalized earnings and EV/EBITDA are most appropriate. Relative PE is used for sector comparison.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Cyclical valued off mid-cycle earnings and a through-cycle EV/EBITDA (§6.6)
required inputs missing
- DCF is not suitable for a cyclical commodity business
- Book value is not relevant for an asset-heavy business
- Revenue multiples are not applicable for a cyclical business
What was missing
- Lack of analyst dispersion data
- Limited forward EPS estimates
- Insufficient historical P/E data for precise normalization
What drives it
23 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- Revenue (TTM)
- 51,839 ₹ cr
- Net debt
- 23,576 ₹ cr
- Shares outstanding
- 84,40,86,022
- Sector-median P/E
- 25.82×
- Peers used
- 34
- EPS (TTM)
- 23.95 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 18.73×
computed
computed
computed
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- EBITDA margin (cycle median)
- 18%
- Through-cycle EV/EBITDA
- 8.24×
computed (≤5y median)
own-history (median of 5y)
- Term: quality
- -15.0%
- Term: growth
- -23.3%
- Term: capital_allocation
- -11.2%
- Term: financial_strength
- +5.4%
- Term: history
- -8.2%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
quality 25/100 (weak/erratic returns) → discount
weak ~-1% CAGR (ROCE 13% > hurdle) → discount
capital allocation: falling ROCE / weak cash generation → discount
financial strength: effectively debt-free → premium
history: market paid -27% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Mid-cycle EBITDA
- 9,331 ₹ cr
- Enterprise value
- 76,910 ₹ cr
- Net debt basis
- gross (cash unavailable)
- Premium vs sector
- -43.4%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 83%
- Fair P/E
- 14.62×
computed
computed
note: net debt approximated by gross debt (cash unavailable)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for UPL LIMITED: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on UPL LIMITED
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.