VRL Logistics Limited DCF Valuation
VRLLOG · Services · Current price ₹278.75
VRL Logistics Limited cash-flow valuation
Our discounted cash flow (2-stage) values VRL Logistics Limited at ₹178 per share. Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFF path. It carries 70% of the weight in our published estimate of ₹166. A discounted cash flow is only as good as the cash-flow path it assumes, so the assumptions behind it are listed in full below.
Try your own assumptions
Prefer to build the discounted cash flow yourself? The DCF calculator below opens pre-filled with VRL Logistics Limited's reported free cash flow, net debt and share count, so you can set your own growth and discount rate.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for VRL Logistics Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The models agree and the inputs are well covered. Treat this as our firmest estimate.
Estimate range ₹134 – ₹183
Why this method for this business
DCF and residual income are the most appropriate models for VRL Logistics, a transport services company with a mix of cyclical and asset-light operations. DCF captures intrinsic value through cash flows, while residual income reflects returns on book value.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFF path
Book value plus the present value of returns earned above the 10.6% cost of equity
- relative_pe: Not suitable for a transport services company with volatile earnings and no clear multiple benchmarks
What was missing
- Lack of forward-looking analyst estimates for EBITDA and EPS
- Limited data on long-term moat sustainability
What drives it
17 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 190 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 1,138.7 ₹cr
- ROE (normalized)
- 21.3%
- Book value / share
- 65.3 ₹
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
total_debt − cash
computed
reported
- Discount rate (r)
- 13.78%
- Beta
- 1.15
- Cost of equity
- 10.6%
WACC (computed)
bottom-up industry
building-block
- Stage-1 start growth
- 20%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.35%
- Stage-1 years
- 10 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Growth
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Growth horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Growth
- Quality premium
- 1.069×
- Moat
- Narrow
- Excess-return horizon
- 10 yrs
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
computed
computed
- Path
- FCFF
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.513
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for VRL Logistics Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 15 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on VRL Logistics Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.