India GDP forecast stays at 7%, uncertainty range remains wide: NITI Aayog’s Arvind Virmani
Economic Times 1 hr ago·3 Oct 2026, 3:34 pm
NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani kept India’s GDP growth projection for the current fiscal year at 7%, with an uncertainty range of plus or minus 1%, citing unresolved trade issues and global economic developments as reasons for the wide band.
For investors, the unchanged forecast suggests macro expectations remain stable, but the broad range implies earnings could vary more than usual. Companies reliant on exports or global demand may feel the pressure, while those focused on domestic consumption could be less affected.
Virmani also supported a gradual shift to a cost‑based merchant discount rate for UPI after the subsidy period, which may tighten margins for payment processors and fintech firms. Watch for RBI’s timeline on the MDR change, upcoming trade negotiations, and the next GDP data release for further clues on the growth trajectory.
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