BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LT DCF Valuation
BPCL · Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels · Current price ₹293.5
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LT cash-flow valuation
Our discounted cash flow (2-stage) values BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LT at ₹407 per share. Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path. It carries 70% of the weight in our published estimate of ₹423. A discounted cash flow is only as good as the cash-flow path it assumes, so the assumptions behind it are listed in full below.
Try your own assumptions
Prefer to build the discounted cash flow yourself? The DCF calculator below opens pre-filled with BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LT's reported free cash flow, net debt and share count, so you can set your own growth and discount rate.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LT. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The models agree and the inputs are well covered. Treat this as our firmest estimate.
Estimate range ₹381 – ₹465
Why this method for this business
The DCF model is appropriate for BPCL as a capital-intensive energy business with stable cash flows, while the relative PE model captures market sentiment and peer comparisons.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
- ev_ebitda is not used due to lack of reliable EBITDA multiples for the oil and gas sector in the current environment.
What was missing
- Lack of reliable EBITDA multiples for the oil and gas sector
- Limited forward-looking analyst estimates for the company
What drives it
28 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 13,448 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 54,424 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 5.44×
- Peers used
- 5
- EPS (TTM)
- 39.48 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 11.49×
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 8.33%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.42%
- Stage-1 years
- 10 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Growth
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Growth horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Growth
- Quality premium
- 1.085×
- Anchor correction
- peer anchor 5.4x diverges 2.1x from 7yr own-history 11.5x (no size-comparable peer) — anchor blended 0.6 toward own-history → 9.1x
- Term: quality
- +0.2%
- Term: growth
- +13.9%
- Term: capital_allocation
- -3.5%
- Term: financial_strength
- +6.4%
- Term: history
- +8.0%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
peer-anchor mismatch — deep own-history used instead
quality 56/100 (about average) → neutral
durable ~11% CAGR (ROCE 18% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: falling ROCE / weak cash generation → discount
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.2) → mild premium
history: market paid +27% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.453
- Premium vs sector
- +28.2%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 78%
- Fair P/E
- 11.63×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LT: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on BHARAT PETROLEUM CORP LT
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.