Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited Intrinsic Value
BPCL · Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels · Current price ₹293.5
Is Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited at ₹423 per share, against a market price of ₹305. That puts the share price about +38.9% below our estimate, at high confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹407), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹459). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited spans ₹381 to ₹465. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
Margin of safety
Value investors look for a margin of safety: a discount to estimated value that absorbs being wrong. At ₹305 against an estimated value of ₹423, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited trades at +38.9%, i.e. a discount to our estimate. How much margin to demand depends on how much you trust the inputs, which is what the confidence band below is for.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The models agree and the inputs are well covered. Treat this as our firmest estimate.
Estimate range ₹381 – ₹465
Why this method for this business
The DCF model is appropriate for BPCL as a capital-intensive energy business with stable cash flows, while the relative PE model captures market sentiment and peer comparisons.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
- ev_ebitda is not used due to lack of reliable EBITDA multiples for the oil and gas sector in the current environment.
What was missing
- Lack of reliable EBITDA multiples for the oil and gas sector
- Limited forward-looking analyst estimates for the company
What drives it
28 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 13,448 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 54,424 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 5.44×
- Peers used
- 5
- EPS (TTM)
- 39.48 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 11.49×
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 8.33%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.42%
- Stage-1 years
- 10 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Growth
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Growth horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Growth
- Quality premium
- 1.085×
- Anchor correction
- peer anchor 5.4x diverges 2.1x from 7yr own-history 11.5x (no size-comparable peer) — anchor blended 0.6 toward own-history → 9.1x
- Term: quality
- +0.2%
- Term: growth
- +13.9%
- Term: capital_allocation
- -3.5%
- Term: financial_strength
- +6.4%
- Term: history
- +8.0%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
peer-anchor mismatch — deep own-history used instead
quality 56/100 (about average) → neutral
durable ~11% CAGR (ROCE 18% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: falling ROCE / weak cash generation → discount
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.2) → mild premium
history: market paid +27% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.453
- Premium vs sector
- +28.2%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 78%
- Fair P/E
- 11.63×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.