Chalet Hotels Limited Intrinsic Value
CHALET · Consumer Services · Current price ₹851.55
Is Chalet Hotels Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Chalet Hotels Limited at ₹1,206 per share, against a market price of ₹877. That puts the share price about +37.5% below our estimate, at low confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹737), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹1,676). These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their midpoint rather than a weighted blend, and the disagreement is part of the finding. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Chalet Hotels Limited spans ₹737 to ₹1,676. That range is wide, which is the honest signal here: read the range rather than the single number. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
Margin of safety
Value investors look for a margin of safety: a discount to estimated value that absorbs being wrong. At ₹877 against an estimated value of ₹1,206, Chalet Hotels Limited trades at +37.5%, i.e. a discount to our estimate. How much margin to demand depends on how much you trust the inputs, which is what the confidence band below is for.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Chalet Hotels Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹737 – ₹1,676
Why this method for this business
The hotel industry is asset-light with durable earnings power, making DCF and relative PE the most appropriate models. Residual income is not suitable for a high-growth, capital-light business.
The models behind the number
These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their plain midpoint rather than a weighted blend. The disagreement is itself the finding.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
- residual_income: not suitable for a high-growth, capital-light business
What was missing
- Lack of detailed capital allocation data
- Limited analyst coverage
- No forward EPS estimates beyond FY27
What drives it
27 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 619 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 2,204 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 43.3×
- Peers used
- 6
- EPS (TTM)
- 24.12 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 40.9×
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
total_debt − cash
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 30%
- Fade shape
- hard
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.3%
- Stage-1 years
- 12 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Hyper-Growth
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Hyper-Growth horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Hyper-Growth
- Quality premium
- 1.06×
- Term: quality
- -3.1%
- Term: growth
- +38.8%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +13.6%
- Term: financial_strength
- +5.5%
- Term: history
- -1.7%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
quality 49/100 (weak/erratic returns) → discount
durable ~47% CAGR (ROCE 8% < 12% hurdle (growth not value-accretive)) → premium
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.6) → mild premium
history: market paid -6% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.437
- Premium vs sector
- +60.5%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 81%
- Fair P/E
- 69.49×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Chalet Hotels Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Chalet Hotels Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.