Cochin Shipyard Limited Intrinsic Value
COCHINSHIP · Capital Goods · Current price ₹1,248.8
Is Cochin Shipyard Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Cochin Shipyard Limited at ₹500 per share, against a market price of ₹1,381. That puts the share price about -63.8% above our estimate, at medium confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹471), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹640). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Cochin Shipyard Limited spans ₹450 to ₹550. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
Margin of safety
Value investors look for a margin of safety: a discount to estimated value that absorbs being wrong. At ₹1,381 against an estimated value of ₹500, Cochin Shipyard Limited trades at -63.8%, i.e. a premium to our estimate. How much margin to demand depends on how much you trust the inputs, which is what the confidence band below is for.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Cochin Shipyard Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹450 – ₹550
Why this method for this business
Cochin Shipyard is a capital-intensive business with significant debt and long-term projects, making DCF and EV/EBITDA the most appropriate models. Relative PE is used to benchmark against peers in the capital goods sector.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
required inputs missing
- Discounted cash flow (2-stage) is the primary model due to its alignment with long-term capital projects and cash flow generation. EV/EBITDA is used to capture the asset-light and capital-light aspects of the business. Relative PE is used for peer comparison in the capital goods sector.
What was missing
- Lack of detailed information on specific project timelines and costs
- Limited analyst coverage and forward estimates
- Insufficient data on the impact of geopolitical factors on the maritime sector
What drives it
27 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 1,191 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 1,672 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 25.1×
- Peers used
- 416
- EPS (TTM)
- 25.86 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 29.28×
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Discount rate (r)
- 15.53%
- Beta
- 1.15
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 5.39%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.39%
- Stage-1 years
- 10 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Growth
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Growth horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Growth
- Quality premium
- 1.079×
- Term: quality
- +0.2%
- Term: growth
- -0.5%
- Term: capital_allocation
- -10.5%
- Term: financial_strength
- +4.0%
- Term: history
- +5.0%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
quality 56/100 (about average) → neutral (ROCE deteriorating → premium halved)
~8% CAGR (ROCE 21% > hurdle) → neutral
capital allocation: falling ROCE / weak cash generation → discount
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.3) → mild premium
history: market paid +17% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.399
- Premium vs sector
- -1.4%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 70%
- Fair P/E
- 24.74×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Cochin Shipyard Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Cochin Shipyard Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.