Confidence Petroleum India Limited Fair Value
CONFIPET · Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels · Current price ₹81.18
Is Confidence Petroleum India Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Confidence Petroleum India Limited at ₹32 per share, against a market price of ₹89. That puts the share price about -64.1% above our estimate, at medium confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 1 method: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹32). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Confidence Petroleum India Limited spans ₹29 to ₹35. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Confidence Petroleum India Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹29 – ₹35
Why this method for this business
DCF is the most appropriate model for Confipet, given its capital-intensive nature and the need to evaluate its intrinsic value through discounted cash flows. The business is in the energy sector, which is cyclical, but the company's stable LPG supply chain and growing market presence justify a DCF approach.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
- ev_sales: insufficient data on sales multiples and industry comparables
- Other models are not applicable for a capital-intensive business with uncertain future cash flows
What was missing
- Forward-looking analyst estimates
- Detailed industry comparables for EV/Sales model
What drives it
12 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 69 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 592.5 ₹cr
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
total_debt − cash
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 14.63%
- Fade shape
- hard
- Terminal growth (g)
- 4.88%
- Stage-1 years
- 12 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Hyper-Growth
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Hyper-Growth horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Hyper-Growth
- Quality premium
- 0.976×
forecast engine (L20)
moat None + capital allocation
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.381
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Confidence Petroleum India Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 15 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Confidence Petroleum India Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.