G R Infraprojects Limited DCF Valuation
GRINFRA · Construction · Current price ₹777
G R Infraprojects Limited cash-flow valuation
Our discounted cash flow (2-stage) values G R Infraprojects Limited at ₹590 per share. Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path. It carries 60% of the weight in our published estimate of ₹671. A discounted cash flow is only as good as the cash-flow path it assumes, so the assumptions behind it are listed in full below.
Try your own assumptions
Prefer to build the discounted cash flow yourself? The DCF calculator below opens pre-filled with G R Infraprojects Limited's reported free cash flow, net debt and share count, so you can set your own growth and discount rate.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for G R Infraprojects Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹590 – ₹738
Why this method for this business
The construction industry is capital-intensive and cyclically sensitive, making DCF and EV/EBITDA the most appropriate models. Relative PE is used to anchor the valuation against peers.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
required inputs missing
- Discounted cash flow (2-stage) is the primary model due to its alignment with capital-intensive projects and the need to account for debt and cash flows. EV/EBITDA is used to capture the industry's capital structure and profitability. Relative PE is used to benchmark against peers in the construction sector.
What was missing
- Lack of forward-looking analyst estimates for EBITDA and EPS
- Limited data on project-specific risks and cost overruns
What drives it
28 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 495 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 4,872 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 21.55×
- Peers used
- 28
- EPS (TTM)
- 105.02 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 9.41×
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 5.27%
- Fade shape
- gentle
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.27%
- Stage-1 years
- 9 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Cash-Cow
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Cash-Cow horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Cash-Cow
- Quality premium
- 1.055×
- Anchor correction
- peer anchor 21.6x diverges 0.4x from 5yr own-history 9.4x (no size-comparable peer) — anchor blended 0.6 toward own-history → 14.3x
- Term: quality
- -5.1%
- Term: growth
- -19.7%
- Term: capital_allocation
- -6.0%
- Term: financial_strength
- +8.4%
- Term: history
- -10.2%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
peer-anchor mismatch — deep own-history used instead
quality 45/100 (weak/erratic returns) → discount
weak ~0% CAGR (ROCE 22% > hurdle) → discount
capital allocation: falling ROCE / weak cash generation → discount
financial strength: effectively debt-free → premium
history: market paid -34% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.473
- Premium vs sector
- -29.4%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 80%
- Fair P/E
- 10.08×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for G R Infraprojects Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on G R Infraprojects Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.