Hindustan Aeronautics Limited DCF Valuation
HAL · Capital Goods · Current price ₹4,989
Hindustan Aeronautics Limited cash-flow valuation
Our discounted cash flow (2-stage) values Hindustan Aeronautics Limited at ₹2,002 per share. Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path. It carries 50% of the weight in our published estimate of ₹3,413. A discounted cash flow is only as good as the cash-flow path it assumes, so the assumptions behind it are listed in full below.
Try your own assumptions
Prefer to build the discounted cash flow yourself? The DCF calculator below opens pre-filled with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited's reported free cash flow, net debt and share count, so you can set your own growth and discount rate.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Hindustan Aeronautics Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹2,002 – ₹4,824
Why this method for this business
HAL is a capital-intensive, cyclical aerospace and defense business with strong government contracts and a durable moat. DCF captures intrinsic value, EV/EBITDA reflects capital structure, and relative PE aligns with sector peers.
The models behind the number
These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their plain midpoint rather than a weighted blend. The disagreement is itself the finding.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
required inputs missing
- Discounted cash flow (2-stage) is the primary model, but the deterministic baseline already uses it. EV/EBITDA and relative PE are complementary for capital-heavy businesses like HAL.
What was missing
- Lack of detailed project-specific financials
- Limited analyst coverage for HAL
- Uncertainty in long-term government spending trends
What drives it
28 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 8,451 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 66 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 42.45×
- Peers used
- 9
- EPS (TTM)
- 139.38 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 12.32×
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Discount rate (r)
- 15.53%
- Beta
- 1.15
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 14%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.5%
- Stage-1 years
- 14 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Mature
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Mature horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Mature
- Quality premium
- 1.1×
- Anchor correction
- peer anchor 42.4x diverges 0.3x from 8yr own-history 12.3x (no size-comparable peer) — anchor blended 0.6 toward own-history → 24.4x
- Term: quality
- +9.6%
- Term: growth
- +29.5%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +7.7%
- Term: financial_strength
- +7.8%
- Term: history
- -14.8%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat Wide + capital allocation
peer-anchor mismatch — deep own-history used instead
quality 74/100 (high, stable returns) → premium
durable ~15% CAGR (ROCE 29% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: effectively debt-free → premium
history: market paid -49% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.323
- Premium vs sector
- +42.0%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 80%
- Fair P/E
- 34.61×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Hindustan Aeronautics Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Hindustan Aeronautics Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.