HDFC BANK LTD DCF Valuation
HDFCBANK · Financial Services · Current price ₹728.85
HDFC BANK LTD cash-flow valuation
Our residual income (excess return on book) values HDFC BANK LTD at ₹671 per share. Book value plus the present value of returns earned above the 10.6% cost of equity. It carries 30% of the weight in our published estimate of ₹735. A discounted cash flow is only as good as the cash-flow path it assumes, so the assumptions behind it are listed in full below.
Try your own assumptions
Prefer to build the discounted cash flow yourself? The DCF calculator below opens pre-filled with HDFC BANK LTD's reported free cash flow, net debt and share count, so you can set your own growth and discount rate.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for HDFC BANK LTD. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹661 – ₹808
Why this method for this business
For a large private sector bank like HDFC, justified P/B is the most appropriate valuation method as it directly links the bank's profitability (ROE) to its valuation. Residual income provides a complementary view by capturing excess returns above the cost of equity.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
17% sustainable ROE vs 10.6% cost of equity justifies ~2.0× book
Book value plus the present value of returns earned above the 10.6% cost of equity
- Relative P/B was not used as it's less fundamental than justified P/B for a bank valuation, which should be based on intrinsic profitability rather than relative metrics.
What was missing
- Detailed segment-wise profitability data
- Loan portfolio composition by risk category
- Capital adequacy ratios beyond current period
What drives it
11 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- ROE (normalized)
- 16.7%
- Dividend payout
- 32.7%
- Book value / share
- 390 ₹
computed
ratios/derived
reported
- Cost of equity
- 10.6%
building-block
- Near-term growth g
- 11.2%
- High-growth years
- 10 yrs
- Terminal ROE
- 12.6%
- Terminal growth g
- 5%
computed
building-block
faded toward COE + moat
computed
- Moat
- Narrow
- Excess-return horizon
- 10 yrs
computed
computed
- Justified P/B
- 1.95×
two-stage Gordon
Who computed this
A language model (glm-4.5-air) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for HDFC BANK LTD: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on HDFC BANK LTD
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.