Hikal Limited Intrinsic Value
HIKAL · Healthcare · Current price ₹216
Is Hikal Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Hikal Limited at ₹80 per share, against a market price of ₹225. That puts the share price about -64.4% above our estimate, at low confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 1 method: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹80). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Hikal Limited spans ₹72 to ₹88. That range is wide, which is the honest signal here: read the range rather than the single number. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
Margin of safety
Value investors look for a margin of safety: a discount to estimated value that absorbs being wrong. At ₹225 against an estimated value of ₹80, Hikal Limited trades at -64.4%, i.e. a premium to our estimate. How much margin to demand depends on how much you trust the inputs, which is what the confidence band below is for.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Hikal Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹72 – ₹88
Why this method for this business
The DCF model is appropriate for valuing a pharmaceutical company with stable cash flows, while EV/EBITDA provides a market-based multiple for comparison.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
required inputs missing
- relative_pe: insufficient data on peer multiples
- ev_ebitda: used as a secondary model despite data gaps
What was missing
- Lack of forward EBITDA margins
- Insufficient peer multiple data for EV/EBITDA
What drives it
12 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 71 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 684 ₹cr
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
- Discount rate (r)
- 13.28%
- Beta
- 0.85
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 8%
- Fade shape
- hard
- Terminal growth (g)
- 4.93%
- Stage-1 years
- 12 y
lifecycle-floor
lifecycle Startup
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Startup horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Startup
- Quality premium
- 0.986×
forecast engine (L20)
moat None + capital allocation
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.409
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Hikal Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 15 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Hikal Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.