Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited Intrinsic Value
HINDPETRO · Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels · Current price ₹346
Is Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited at ₹544 per share, against a market price of ₹352. That puts the share price about +54.5% below our estimate, at medium confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 1 method: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹544). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited spans ₹490 to ₹598. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
Margin of safety
Value investors look for a margin of safety: a discount to estimated value that absorbs being wrong. At ₹352 against an estimated value of ₹544, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited trades at +54.5%, i.e. a discount to our estimate. How much margin to demand depends on how much you trust the inputs, which is what the confidence band below is for.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹490 – ₹598
Why this method for this business
Hindustan Petroleum is a capital-intensive energy business, so DCF and EV/EBITDA are the most appropriate models. Relative P/E is not suitable due to the sector's volatility and the lack of a clear earnings multiple.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFF path
required inputs missing
- relative_pe: Not suitable for a cyclical, capital-intensive energy business with volatile earnings
What was missing
- Lack of forward EBITDA estimates
- Limited analyst coverage for EV/EBITDA
What drives it
12 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 6,545 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 55,964 ₹cr
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
- Discount rate (r)
- 10.48%
- Beta
- 1
WACC (computed)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 11.1%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.39%
- Stage-1 years
- 10 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Growth
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Growth horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Growth
- Quality premium
- 1.078×
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
- Path
- FCFF
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.642
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.