Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited Fair Value
MRPL · Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels · Current price ₹172.64
Is Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited at ₹232 per share, against a market price of ₹176. That puts the share price about +31.9% below our estimate, at low confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹356), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹108). These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their midpoint rather than a weighted blend, and the disagreement is part of the finding. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited spans ₹108 to ₹356. That range is wide, which is the honest signal here: read the range rather than the single number. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹108 – ₹356
Why this method for this business
MRPL is a capital-intensive energy business with cyclical earnings and high debt. DCF is appropriate for its cash flow generation, while relative PE captures sector multiples and market sentiment.
The models behind the number
These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their plain midpoint rather than a weighted blend. The disagreement is itself the finding.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFF path
- ev_ebitda is not used due to lack of reliable EBITDA multiples for the energy sector
- forward-looking DCF is not used due to the cyclical nature of the business and the need for normalized earnings
What was missing
- Lack of forward-looking EBITDA multiples for the energy sector
- Limited analyst coverage and dispersion in earnings estimates
What drives it
27 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 3,885 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 14,776.5 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 4.98×
- Peers used
- 4
- EPS (TTM)
- 17.93 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 7.06×
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
total_debt − cash
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Discount rate (r)
- 12.11%
- Beta
- 1.15
WACC (computed)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 14%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5%
- Stage-1 years
- 8 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Mature
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Mature horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Mature
- Quality premium
- 1×
- Term: quality
- -7.6%
- Term: growth
- -4.4%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +9.6%
- Term: financial_strength
- -0.3%
- Term: history
- +12.5%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat None + capital allocation
quality 40/100 (weak/erratic returns) → discount
weak ~6% CAGR (ROCE 14% > hurdle) → discount
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: moderate leverage (D/E 1.1) → neutral
history: market paid +42% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFF
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.614
- Premium vs sector
- +20.5%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 68%
- Fair P/E
- 6×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.