NTPC Limited DCF Valuation
NTPC · Power · Current price ₹315.15
NTPC Limited cash-flow valuation
Our discounted cash flow (2-stage) values NTPC Limited at ₹299 per share. Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFF path. It carries 70% of the weight in our published estimate of ₹299. A discounted cash flow is only as good as the cash-flow path it assumes, so the assumptions behind it are listed in full below.
Try your own assumptions
Prefer to build the discounted cash flow yourself? The DCF calculator below opens pre-filled with NTPC Limited's reported free cash flow, net debt and share count, so you can set your own growth and discount rate.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for NTPC Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹269 – ₹329
Why this method for this business
NTPC is a capital-intensive utility with stable cash flows, making DCF and EV/EBITDA appropriate. DCF captures intrinsic value, while EV/EBITDA provides a market-based multiple.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFF path
required inputs missing
- FCFF is not suitable for utilities due to high debt and capital intensity
- P/B is not appropriate for a utility with significant debt
What was missing
- Lack of forward EBITDA estimates
- Limited analyst coverage for EV/EBITDA
What drives it
12 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 18,723 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 2,71,005 ₹cr
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
- Discount rate (r)
- 10.02%
- Beta
- 0.95
WACC (computed)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 12.97%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.32%
- Stage-1 years
- 9 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Mature
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Mature horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Mature
- Quality premium
- 1.064×
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
- Path
- FCFF
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.694
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for NTPC Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on NTPC Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.