Rail Vikas Nigam Limited DCF Valuation
RVNL · Construction · Current price ₹199.45
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited cash-flow valuation
Our discounted cash flow (2-stage) values Rail Vikas Nigam Limited at ₹110 per share. Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path. It carries 60% of the weight in our published estimate of ₹82. A discounted cash flow is only as good as the cash-flow path it assumes, so the assumptions behind it are listed in full below.
Try your own assumptions
Prefer to build the discounted cash flow yourself? The DCF calculator below opens pre-filled with Rail Vikas Nigam Limited's reported free cash flow, net debt and share count, so you can set your own growth and discount rate.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Rail Vikas Nigam Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹74 – ₹110
Why this method for this business
RVNL is a capital-intensive construction company with cyclical earnings and significant debt, making DCF and EV/EBITDA the most appropriate models. Relative PE is used for comparison with peers.
The models behind the number
These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their plain midpoint rather than a weighted blend. The disagreement is itself the finding.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path
required inputs missing
- Discounted cash flow (2-stage) is the primary model due to its ability to capture the long-term value of a capital-intensive business with cyclical earnings. EV/EBITDA is used to capture the value of the business relative to its earnings. Relative PE is used for comparison with peers in the construction sector.
What was missing
- Lack of forward-looking analyst estimates for EBITDA and EPS
- Limited data on the company's capital allocation strategy
What drives it
28 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 2,051.5 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 4,818 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 24.49×
- Peers used
- 10
- EPS (TTM)
- 4.31 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 10.25×
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 4.96%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 4.96%
- Stage-1 years
- 8 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Mature
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Mature horizon
- Lifecycle stage
- Mature
- Quality premium
- 0.993×
- Anchor correction
- peer anchor 24.5x diverges 0.4x from 7yr own-history 10.2x (no size-comparable peer) — anchor blended 0.6 toward own-history → 15.9x
- Term: quality
- -6.7%
- Term: growth
- -16.0%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +8.2%
- Term: financial_strength
- +2.8%
- Term: history
- -10.7%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
forecast engine (L20)
moat None + capital allocation
peer-anchor mismatch — deep own-history used instead
quality 42/100 (weak/erratic returns) → discount
weak ~2% CAGR (ROCE 13% > hurdle) → discount
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.5) → mild premium
history: market paid -36% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.502
- Premium vs sector
- -21.2%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 78%
- Fair P/E
- 12.57×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Rail Vikas Nigam Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Rail Vikas Nigam Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.