Steel Authority of India Limited Intrinsic Value
SAIL · Metals & Mining · Current price ₹170.95
Is Steel Authority of India Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Steel Authority of India Limited at ₹189 per share, against a market price of ₹179. That puts the share price about +5.6% below our estimate, at medium confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 2 methods: Normalized earnings (mid-cycle EV/EBITDA) (₹195), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹149). Each is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Steel Authority of India Limited spans ₹170 to ₹208. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
Margin of safety
Value investors look for a margin of safety: a discount to estimated value that absorbs being wrong. At ₹179 against an estimated value of ₹189, Steel Authority of India Limited trades at +5.6%, i.e. a discount to our estimate. How much margin to demand depends on how much you trust the inputs, which is what the confidence band below is for.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Steel Authority of India Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹170 – ₹208
Why this method for this business
SAIL is a cyclical commodity business, so normalized mid-cycle earnings and EV/EBITDA are the most relevant models. Relative PE provides a sector benchmark.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Cyclical valued off mid-cycle earnings and a through-cycle EV/EBITDA (§6.6)
required inputs missing
- DCF is not suitable for a cyclical commodity business
- Book-value residual income is not applicable for an asset-heavy business
What was missing
- Lack of forward analyst estimates for EV/EBITDA
- Limited historical data on sector multiples
What drives it
23 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- Revenue (TTM)
- 1,10,811 ₹ cr
- Net debt
- 31,928 ₹ cr
- Shares outstanding
- 4,12,89,91,060
- Sector-median P/E
- 15.95×
- Peers used
- 3
- EPS (TTM)
- 10.34 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 15.69×
computed
computed
computed
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- EBITDA margin (cycle median)
- 11%
- Through-cycle EV/EBITDA
- 9.22×
computed (≤5y median)
own-history (median of 5y)
- Term: quality
- -15.2%
- Term: growth
- -3.2%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +6.8%
- Term: financial_strength
- +2.0%
- Term: history
- -0.5%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
quality 25/100 (weak/erratic returns) → discount
weak ~3% CAGR (ROCE 8% < 12% hurdle (growth not value-accretive)) → discount
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: moderate leverage (D/E 0.5) → neutral
history: market paid -2% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Mid-cycle EBITDA
- 12,189.2 ₹ cr
- Enterprise value
- 1,12,366.2 ₹ cr
- Net debt basis
- gross (cash unavailable)
- Premium vs sector
- -9.8%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 67%
- Fair P/E
- 14.38×
computed
computed
note: net debt approximated by gross debt (cash unavailable)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Steel Authority of India Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Steel Authority of India Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.