Transport Corporation of India Limited DCF Valuation
TCI · Services · Current price ₹868.4
Transport Corporation of India Limited cash-flow valuation
Our discounted cash flow (2-stage) values Transport Corporation of India Limited at ₹231 per share. Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path; kept despite sitting outside the ₹715-median band — ₹715 from another model is within 3.1×, so this is genuine disagreement, not a broken model; downweighted: 68% from committee consensus (₹715). It carries 15% of the weight in our published estimate of ₹1,415. A discounted cash flow is only as good as the cash-flow path it assumes, so the assumptions behind it are listed in full below.
Try your own assumptions
Prefer to build the discounted cash flow yourself? The DCF calculator below opens pre-filled with Transport Corporation of India Limited's reported free cash flow, net debt and share count, so you can set your own growth and discount rate.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Transport Corporation of India Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹707 – ₹1,556
Why this method for this business
The business is asset-light with durable earnings power, making DCF and relative PE appropriate. Residual income is used to capture book value and return on equity.
The models behind the number
These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their plain midpoint rather than a weighted blend. The disagreement is itself the finding.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path; kept despite sitting outside the ₹715-median band — ₹715 from another model is within 3.1×, so this is genuine disagreement, not a broken model; downweighted: 68% from committee consensus (₹715)
kept despite sitting outside the ₹715-median band — ₹715 from another model is within 3.3×, so this is genuine disagreement, not a broken model; downweighted: 230% from committee consensus (₹715)
Book value plus the present value of returns earned above the 10.6% cost of equity
- Discounted cash flow (2-stage) is already used, but we refine assumptions. No other models are suitable for this business type.
What was missing
- Lack of forward EPS estimates for precise DCF modeling
- Limited analyst coverage for relative PE normalization
What drives it
32 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- ROE (normalized)
- 20%
- Book value / share
- 334 ₹
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 112 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 312 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 25×
- Peers used
- 6
- EPS (TTM)
- 59.5 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 15.53×
computed
reported
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Cost of equity
- 10.6%
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
building-block
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 14%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.38%
- Stage-1 years
- 9 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Mature
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Mature horizon
- Moat
- Narrow
- Excess-return horizon
- 10 yrs
- Lifecycle stage
- Mature
- Quality premium
- 1.075×
- Term: quality
- +4.0%
- Term: growth
- +40.0%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +12.3%
- Term: financial_strength
- +8.0%
- Term: history
- -11.4%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
computed
computed
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
quality 63/100 (high, stable returns) → premium
durable ~19% CAGR (ROCE 17% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.1) → mild premium
history: market paid -38% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.504
- Premium vs sector
- +58.4%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 79%
- Fair P/E
- 39.6×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Transport Corporation of India Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Transport Corporation of India Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.