Transport Corporation of India Limited Fair Value
TCI · Services · Current price ₹868.4
Is Transport Corporation of India Limited undervalued?
We estimate the fair value of Transport Corporation of India Limited at ₹1,415 per share, against a market price of ₹859. That puts the share price about +64.8% below our estimate, at low confidence. This is our view of what the business is worth, not a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
How this fair value is calculated
This estimate comes from 3 methods: Discounted cash flow (2-stage) (₹231), Fair multiple (P/E) (₹2,356), Residual income (excess return on book) (₹715). These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their midpoint rather than a weighted blend, and the disagreement is part of the finding. The full working, including the assumptions and what data was missing, is set out below.
The range around this estimate
Our estimate for Transport Corporation of India Limited spans ₹707 to ₹1,556. That range is wide, which is the honest signal here: read the range rather than the single number. A margin of safety means buying meaningfully below the estimate: the wider the range, the more room the assumptions leave for error.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for Transport Corporation of India Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
The inputs are thin or the models disagree sharply. This is our least reliable kind of estimate, so read the range rather than the single number.
Estimate range ₹707 – ₹1,556
Why this method for this business
The business is asset-light with durable earnings power, making DCF and relative PE appropriate. Residual income is used to capture book value and return on equity.
The models behind the number
These methods disagree materially, so the estimate is their plain midpoint rather than a weighted blend. The disagreement is itself the finding.
Intrinsic value from 2-stage discounted cash flows (primary for asset-light / normal businesses); FCFE path; kept despite sitting outside the ₹715-median band — ₹715 from another model is within 3.1×, so this is genuine disagreement, not a broken model; downweighted: 68% from committee consensus (₹715)
kept despite sitting outside the ₹715-median band — ₹715 from another model is within 3.3×, so this is genuine disagreement, not a broken model; downweighted: 230% from committee consensus (₹715)
Book value plus the present value of returns earned above the 10.6% cost of equity
- Discounted cash flow (2-stage) is already used, but we refine assumptions. No other models are suitable for this business type.
What was missing
- Lack of forward EPS estimates for precise DCF modeling
- Limited analyst coverage for relative PE normalization
What drives it
32 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- ROE (normalized)
- 20%
- Book value / share
- 334 ₹
- FCF_0 (normalized)
- 112 ₹cr
- Net debt
- 312 ₹cr
- Sector-median P/E
- 25×
- Peers used
- 6
- EPS (TTM)
- 59.5 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 15.53×
computed
reported
fcf_norm (median ≤5y positive)
gross debt (cash n/a)
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- Cost of equity
- 10.6%
- Discount rate (r)
- 14.4%
- Beta
- 1
building-block
COE (building-block)
bottom-up industry
- Stage-1 start growth
- 14%
- Fade shape
- linear
- Terminal growth (g)
- 5.38%
- Stage-1 years
- 9 y
pat_cagr_5y
lifecycle Mature
macro terminal × quality premium
lifecycle Mature horizon
- Moat
- Narrow
- Excess-return horizon
- 10 yrs
- Lifecycle stage
- Mature
- Quality premium
- 1.075×
- Term: quality
- +4.0%
- Term: growth
- +40.0%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +12.3%
- Term: financial_strength
- +8.0%
- Term: history
- -11.4%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
computed
computed
forecast engine (L20)
moat Narrow + capital allocation
quality 63/100 (high, stable returns) → premium
durable ~19% CAGR (ROCE 17% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.1) → mild premium
history: market paid -38% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Path
- FCFE
- Terminal-value fraction
- 0.504
- Premium vs sector
- +58.4%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 79%
- Fair P/E
- 39.6×
computed (D/E vs 0.8)
PV_TV / (PV_1+PV_TV)
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for Transport Corporation of India Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on Transport Corporation of India Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.