UltraTech Cement Limited DCF Valuation
ULTRACEMCO · Construction Materials · Current price ₹10,907
UltraTech Cement Limited cash-flow valuation
Our engine did not use a discounted-cash-flow model for UltraTech Cement Limited. It routes each business to the methods that suit it, and a DCF is a poor lens where cash-flow forecasts are fragile or the business is capital-structure driven. The methods it did use, and why, are set out below. Our published estimate is ₹15,288.
Try your own assumptions
Prefer to build the discounted cash flow yourself? The DCF calculator below opens pre-filled with UltraTech Cement Limited's reported free cash flow, net debt and share count, so you can set your own growth and discount rate.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for UltraTech Cement Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹13,760 – ₹16,817
Why this method for this business
Normalized earnings and EV/EBITDA are the most appropriate for a cyclical business like cement, which is sensitive to macroeconomic cycles and requires through-cycle valuation.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Cyclical valued off mid-cycle earnings and a through-cycle EV/EBITDA (§6.6)
required inputs missing
- Relative PE is less reliable for cyclical businesses due to earnings volatility
- DCF is not suitable for a capital-intensive industry with high leverage
What was missing
- Lack of forward-looking analyst estimates for EBITDA and EPS
- Limited data on capital allocation efficiency
What drives it
22 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- Revenue (TTM)
- 88,512 ₹ cr
- Net debt
- 23,400.5 ₹ cr
- Shares outstanding
- 29,46,67,728
- Sector-median P/E
- 43.06×
- Peers used
- 5
- EPS (TTM)
- 289.77 ₹/share
- Own-history median P/E
- 38.78×
computed
computed
computed
peer-median
peer-median
computed
reconstructed (one feature, dampened — not a cap)
- EBITDA margin (cycle median)
- 18%
- Through-cycle EV/EBITDA
- 29.27×
computed (≤5y median)
own-history (median of 5y)
- Term: quality
- +4.3%
- Term: growth
- +14.1%
- Term: capital_allocation
- +7.2%
- Term: financial_strength
- +8.3%
- Term: history
- -3.0%
- Term: sector_rerating
- +0.0%
- Term: rate_regime
- +1.2%
- Term: risk
- +0.0%
quality 64/100 (high, stable returns) → premium
durable ~12% CAGR (ROCE 13% > hurdle) → premium
capital allocation: rising ROCE funded by strong FCF → premium
financial strength: low leverage (D/E 0.3) → mild premium
history: market paid -10% vs sector, dampened ×0.3 (one feature, not the anchor)
sector re-rating: no sector-norm history → not used
rates: risk-free 6.9% below ~7.1% normal → higher multiple
risk: no analyst-dispersion signal available → neutral (lowers confidence, not PE)
- Mid-cycle EBITDA
- 15,932.2 ₹ cr
- Enterprise value
- 4,66,320 ₹ cr
- Premium vs sector
- +35.7%
- Fair-multiple confidence
- 79%
- Fair P/E
- 58.42×
computed
computed
fundamentals + macro (not capped at own history)
data completeness + term agreement
sector median × ∏(1+term) — Dynamic Fair Multiple
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for UltraTech Cement Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on UltraTech Cement Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.