The world, and what it has meant for India

Oil, the rupee, the dollar, US interest rates, central banks, inflation, gold and metals all reach Indian companies and shares. This page shows what each one did lately, in plain words, and the record of what the Nifty 50 did after similar moves in the past.

Figures computed for 13 Nov 2026. Historical record only, not a forecast. Each figure describes what the Nifty 50 did after similar past moves; it says nothing about what comes next.

This week in five lines

The five drivers whose latest move is most unusual for their own history.

1
Brent crude oil fell 13.3% over the last 21 trading days (about a month). Since 2016, only about 7% of one-month moves were this large in this direction, so this one is unusual.
Why it matters for India: India imports most of the oil it uses. A higher oil price raises the country's import bill and the cost of petrol, diesel, transport and raw materials such as paint and plastics. A lower price eases all of these.
Source: Yahoo Finance (BZ=F) · As of 11 Nov 2026
2
The rupee strengthened 1.4% against the US dollar over the last 21 trading days (about a month). Since 2016, only about 9% of one-month moves were this large in this direction, so this one is unusual.
Why it matters for India: A weaker rupee makes imports such as oil, gold and electronics dearer. It also raises what exporters such as IT services and pharma companies earn in rupees for each dollar of sales. A stronger rupee does the reverse.
Source: Yahoo Finance (USDINR=X) · As of 11 Nov 2026
3
Gold fell 4.1% over the last 21 trading days (about a month). Since 2016, only about 10% of one-month moves were this large in this direction, so this one is unusual.
Why it matters for India: Indian families own a great deal of gold, and India imports almost all of it. The gold price affects jewellers, gold-loan companies (which lend against gold) and the import bill. Gold has often risen when investors were worried about the world economy.
Source: Yahoo Finance (GC=F) · As of 11 Nov 2026
4
Copper fell 3.6% over the last 21 trading days (about a month). Since 2016, only about 19% of one-month moves were this large in this direction, so this one is unusual.
Why it matters for India: These prices move the earnings of Indian metal producers and the costs of companies that use metals, such as cable, auto and packaging makers. They are also read as a gauge of world industrial activity.
Source: Yahoo Finance (HG=F) · As of 11 Nov 2026
5
Aluminium rose 4.2% over the last 21 trading days (about a month). That is within the usual range of one-month moves since 2016.
Why it matters for India: These prices move the earnings of Indian metal producers and the costs of companies that use metals, such as cable, auto and packaging makers. They are also read as a gauge of world industrial activity.
Source: Yahoo Finance (ALI=F) · As of 11 Nov 2026

The drivers

Each card shows the latest stored value with its unit, source and date, its change over a week, a month and a year, and how unusual the latest move is.

Brent crude oil

The price of Brent crude, the world's main benchmark for oil, in US dollars per barrel.

Brent crude (ICE front month)92.76USD per barrel

1 week: −2.0%
1 month: −13.0%
1 year: +42.4%

Source: Yahoo Finance (BZ=F) · As of 11 Nov 2026 · link

Brent crude oil fell 13.3% over the last 21 trading days (about a month).

Since 2016, only about 7% of one-month moves were this large in this direction, so this one is unusual.

lowestpercentile 7highest

What happened after similar moves →

Brent crude oil rose 1.9% over the last 63 trading days (about three months).

That is within the usual range of three-month moves since 2016.

lowestpercentile 52highest

Why it matters for India

India imports most of the oil it uses. A higher oil price raises the country's import bill and the cost of petrol, diesel, transport and raw materials such as paint and plastics. A lower price eases all of these.

The rupee (US dollar to rupee rate)

How many rupees one US dollar costs. When this number goes up, the rupee has weakened; when it goes down, the rupee has strengthened.

USD/INR93.93INR per USD

1 week: −0.9%
1 month: −2.9%
1 year: +5.9%

Source: Yahoo Finance (USDINR=X) · As of 11 Nov 2026 · link

The rupee strengthened 1.4% against the US dollar over the last 21 trading days (about a month).

Since 2016, only about 9% of one-month moves were this large in this direction, so this one is unusual.

lowestpercentile 9highest

What happened after similar moves →

Why it matters for India

A weaker rupee makes imports such as oil, gold and electronics dearer. It also raises what exporters such as IT services and pharma companies earn in rupees for each dollar of sales. A stronger rupee does the reverse.

The US dollar index

The US dollar index: the dollar's value against six major currencies, including the euro and the yen.

US Dollar Index (ICE)102.91index points

1 week: +1.4%
1 month: +0.3%
1 year: +3.5%

Source: Yahoo Finance (DX-Y.NYB) · As of 11 Nov 2026 · link

The US dollar index rose 0.9% over the last 21 trading days (about a month).

That is within the usual range of one-month moves since 2016.

lowestpercentile 68highest

Why it matters for India

A strong dollar has often come with money leaving emerging markets such as India, and with a weaker rupee. A weak dollar has often come with the reverse.

The US 10-year Treasury yield

The interest rate the US government pays to borrow for 10 years. It sets the tone for borrowing costs around the world.

US Treasury 10-year yield5.10percent per annum

1 week: +26 bp
1 month: −14 bp
1 year: +102 bp

Source: US Treasury · As of 12 Nov 2026 · link

The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 11 basis points over the last 21 trading days (about a month).

That is within the usual range of one-month moves since 2016.

lowestpercentile 25highest

Why it matters for India

When US government bonds pay more, some global investors move money out of riskier markets, India included, and into those bonds. Rising US yields have also tended to put pressure on the rupee.

The US Federal Reserve's policy rate

The interest rate set by the US central bank, the Federal Reserve (the Fed). The Fed sets a range for its key rate; the figure shown is the top of that range.

US Federal Reserve policy rate (top of its official range)4.00percent per annum

1 week: 0 bp
1 month: 0 bp
1 year: 0 bp

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York · As of 10 Nov 2026 · link

The latest dated change: the US Federal Reserve raised its rate by 25 basis points, effective 2026-09-17. It was the first move in this direction after a run of moves the other way.

What happened after similar moves →

Why it matters for India

The Fed's rate anchors the cost of borrowing in dollars everywhere. Its decisions move global money flows, the dollar and the rupee, and the RBI watches them closely.

The RBI repo rate

The repo rate: the interest rate at which the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lends to banks. It is India's main policy rate.

RBI repo rate5.50percent per annum

1 week: 0 bp
1 month: 0 bp
1 year: 0 bp

Source: Reserve Bank of India · As of 13 Nov 2026 · link

The latest dated change: the RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points, effective 2026-10-07. It was the first move in this direction after a run of moves the other way.

What happened after similar moves →

Why it matters for India

Changes in the repo rate feed through to home, car and business loan rates and to deposit rates. Cuts make borrowing cheaper for companies and families; increases are used to cool inflation.

India's consumer inflation (CPI)

How much the prices Indian consumers pay rose over the past year (CPI inflation), in percent.

India CPI inflation, YoY4.963percent, year on year

1 week: —
1 month: +39 bp
1 year: +181 bp

Source: OECD · As of 1 Aug 2026 · link

India's consumer inflation rate rose 0.2 percentage points over the last three monthly readings.

That is within the usual range of three-month moves since 2016.

lowestpercentile 58highest

Why it matters for India

Inflation eats into what a salary can pay for. It is also the main number the RBI weighs when it sets interest rates, so a sharp change in inflation feeds into rate decisions.

Gold

The price of gold in US dollars per troy ounce (about 31.1 grams), from COMEX futures.

Gold (COMEX front month)4,000.5USD per troy ounce

1 week: −1.8%
1 month: −4.5%
1 year: −2.8%

Source: Yahoo Finance (GC=F) · As of 11 Nov 2026 · link

Gold fell 4.1% over the last 21 trading days (about a month).

Since 2016, only about 10% of one-month moves were this large in this direction, so this one is unusual.

lowestpercentile 10highest

What happened after similar moves →

Why it matters for India

Indian families own a great deal of gold, and India imports almost all of it. The gold price affects jewellers, gold-loan companies (which lend against gold) and the import bill. Gold has often risen when investors were worried about the world economy.

Industrial metals

Prices of copper and aluminium, metals used in construction, power cables, cars and packaging, from COMEX futures.

Copper (COMEX front month)6.274USD per pound

1 week: −2.0%
1 month: −6.3%
1 year: +24.3%

Source: Yahoo Finance (HG=F) · As of 11 Nov 2026 · link

Aluminium (COMEX front month)3,228USD per metric tonne

1 week: −0.8%
1 month: +3.0%
1 year: +15.9%

Source: Yahoo Finance (ALI=F) · As of 11 Nov 2026 · link

Copper fell 3.6% over the last 21 trading days (about a month).

Since 2016, only about 19% of one-month moves were this large in this direction, so this one is unusual.

lowestpercentile 19highest

What happened after similar moves →

Aluminium rose 4.2% over the last 21 trading days (about a month).

That is within the usual range of one-month moves since 2016.

lowestpercentile 78highest

Why it matters for India

These prices move the earnings of Indian metal producers and the costs of companies that use metals, such as cable, auto and packaging makers. They are also read as a gauge of world industrial activity.

Market fear gauges (VIX)

VIX readings are built from option prices: a higher number means traders are paying more for protection against big price swings. The US VIX covers the S&P 500; India VIX covers the Nifty 50.

CBOE VIX18.70index points (annualised vol, %)

1 week: −33.6%
1 month: +22.9%
1 year: +6.8%

Source: Yahoo Finance (^VIX) · As of 12 Nov 2026 · link

India VIX16.62index points (annualised vol, %)

1 week: +6.7%
1 month: +9.0%
1 year: +37.2%

Source: DocStoX (from NSE data) · As of 12 Nov 2026

The US VIX fear gauge stands at 18.7 points.

That is within its usual range since 2016.

lowestpercentile 62highest

India VIX stands at 16.6 points.

That is within its usual range since 2016.

lowestpercentile 67highest

Why it matters for India

A high VIX marks a nervous market. Spikes in these gauges have come with sharp falls in shares worldwide, and a low VIX with calmer markets.

The Nifty 50

The Nifty 50, an index of 50 of India's largest listed companies, and how far it sits below its highest close of the past year.

Nifty 5025,299.3index points (INR)

1 week: +3.1%
1 month: +13.1%
1 year: −2.2%

Source: Yahoo Finance (^NSEI) · As of 12 Nov 2026 · link

The Nifty 50 is 3.9% below its highest close of the past 52 weeks.

That is within its usual range since 2016.

lowestpercentile 52highest

The Nifty 50 rose 13.1% over the last 21 trading days (about a month).

Since 2016, only less than 1% of one-month moves were this large in this direction, so this one is unusual.

lowestpercentile 100highest

What happened after similar moves →

Why it matters for India

It shows how deep the current dip in Indian shares is compared with the past year's peak, so today's fall can be compared with earlier ones.

What happened before

Historical record only, not a forecast. Each figure describes what the Nifty 50 did after similar past moves; it says nothing about what comes next. Nifty 50 history: 19 Oct 2016 to 12 Nov 2026 (Yahoo Finance (^NSEI)). Changes are percent (100 x log return).

Brent crude (ICE front month): fell this fast in a month

27 past cases · 1 still in progress

Since 2016, Brent crude oil fell this fast in a month 27 times.

63 trading days (about three months) later, the Nifty 50 was higher in 19 of those 27 cases (median +5.2%, middle half −0.7% to +7.2%, full range −26.5% to +17.8%).

Across all three-month periods since 2016, the median Nifty 50 change was +3.6% (2420 overlapping periods).

Past patterns are a record, not a prediction.

Each dot is one past case: the Nifty 50's change (63 trading days after it). Hover a dot for its date.

Dates of the 27 past cases

21 Nov 2016+10.7%
14 Mar 2017+5.7%
15 Jun 2017+5.2%
12 Feb 2018+1.3%
18 Jun 2018+4.3%
25 Oct 2018+5.2%
24 May 2019−6.9%
27 Aug 2019+7.7%
27 Jan 2020−26.5%
5 May 2020+16.8%
9 Sep 2020+17.8%
24 Mar 2021+8.3%
10 Aug 2021+9.3%
22 Nov 2021−0.8%
5 Apr 2022−11.6%
7 Jul 2022+6.6%
22 Nov 2022−2.2%
23 Feb 2023+5.7%
1 Jun 2023+4.1%
6 Oct 2023+9.2%
6 May 2024+6.7%
7 Aug 2024+0.8%
11 Nov 2024−3.2%
13 Feb 2025+6.6%
16 Jul 2025+1.5%
17 Oct 2025−1.9%
15 Apr 2026−0.7%

By sector, compared with the Nifty 50

Each cell is a sector index's change minus the Nifty 50's change over the same days, after the same past moves. Sectors are listed in a fixed order, never sorted by size. Past patterns are a record, not a prediction.

Sector	Cases	Median vs Nifty	Middle half	All periods
Bank	27	+0.1 pp	−2.7 to +3.8 pp	+0.7 pp
Financial services	27	+0.6 pp	−2.1 to +2.2 pp	+0.5 pp
PSU bank	27	−0.7 pp	−7.6 to +5.8 pp	+0.8 pp
IT	27	+2.0 pp	−7.3 to +6.9 pp	+1.4 pp
Auto	27	+0.8 pp	−2.9 to +4.3 pp	+0.2 pp
FMCG (everyday goods)	27	−1.2 pp	−3.9 to +3.9 pp	−1.1 pp
Pharma	27	−0.6 pp	−7.2 to +3.8 pp	−1.2 pp
Metal	27	+3.0 pp	−8.8 to +7.9 pp	+2.0 pp
Energy	27	−0.4 pp	−3.2 to +4.8 pp	0.0 pp
Realty	27	−1.2 pp	−6.1 to +10.1 pp	+1.0 pp
Infrastructure	27	−0.3 pp	−1.9 to +1.7 pp	+0.5 pp
Media	27	−4.9 pp	−13.2 to +2.1 pp	−4.1 pp

Unit: percentage points (sector minus Nifty 50, log returns)

USD/INR: strengthened this much against the dollar in a month

26 past cases · 1 still in progress

Since 2016, the rupee strengthened this much against the dollar in a month 26 times.

63 trading days (about three months) later, the Nifty 50 was higher in 18 of those 26 cases (median +5.0%, middle half −2.4% to +7.7%, full range −45.2% to +20.1%).

Across all three-month periods since 2016, the median Nifty 50 change was +3.6% (2420 overlapping periods).

Past patterns are a record, not a prediction.

Each dot is one past case: the Nifty 50's change (63 trading days after it). Hover a dot for its date.

Dates of the 26 past cases

23 Dec 2016+12.5%
28 Mar 2017+4.3%
2 Aug 2017+3.6%
6 Nov 2017+0.4%
15 Jun 2018+5.0%
6 Nov 2018+5.0%
6 Mar 2019+7.4%
13 Jun 2019−8.0%
17 Sep 2019+12.6%
23 Dec 2019−45.2%
24 Apr 2020+20.1%
27 Jul 2020+6.9%
3 Dec 2020+13.8%
19 Mar 2021+6.2%
6 Aug 2021+10.5%
10 Nov 2021−3.1%
6 Apr 2022−9.9%
18 Aug 2022+1.1%
22 Nov 2022−2.2%
9 Mar 2023+6.2%
20 Jun 2023+5.6%
4 Dec 2023+7.8%
26 Mar 2025+8.3%
24 Oct 2025−2.4%
24 Feb 2026−7.9%
17 Jun 2026−3.7%

By sector, compared with the Nifty 50

Sector	Cases	Median vs Nifty	Middle half	All periods
Bank	26	+0.9 pp	−2.5 to +4.0 pp	+0.7 pp
Financial services	26	+0.1 pp	−2.8 to +1.9 pp	+0.5 pp
PSU bank	26	−1.8 pp	−6.6 to +7.3 pp	+0.8 pp
IT	26	+3.9 pp	−3.7 to +8.2 pp	+1.4 pp
Auto	26	+1.0 pp	−2.9 to +4.8 pp	+0.2 pp
FMCG (everyday goods)	26	−1.6 pp	−5.9 to +2.7 pp	−1.1 pp
Pharma	26	−0.4 pp	−10.8 to +7.0 pp	−1.2 pp
Metal	26	+1.4 pp	−8.4 to +8.0 pp	+2.0 pp
Energy	26	−0.3 pp	−3.1 to +4.8 pp	0.0 pp
Realty	26	+4.3 pp	−5.1 to +10.6 pp	+1.0 pp
Infrastructure	26	+0.2 pp	−2.4 to +2.6 pp	+0.5 pp
Media	26	−2.7 pp	−11.7 to +3.9 pp	−4.1 pp

Unit: percentage points (sector minus Nifty 50, log returns)

US Federal Reserve policy rate (top of its official range): raised its policy rate

10 past cases · 1 still in progress

Since 2016, the US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate 10 times.

63 trading days (about three months) later, the Nifty 50 was higher in 5 of those 10 cases (median +0.8%, middle half −2.7% to +5.8%, full range −9.0% to +12.2%).

Across all three-month periods since 2016, the median Nifty 50 change was +3.6% (2420 overlapping periods).

Past patterns are a record, not a prediction.

Each dot is one past case: the Nifty 50's change (63 trading days after it). Hover a dot for its date.

Dates of the 10 past cases

19 Dec 2016+11.8%
19 Jun 2017+4.9%
18 Dec 2017−2.7%
26 Mar 2018+6.1%
1 Oct 2018−2.6%
21 Mar 2022−9.0%
1 Aug 2022+4.0%
7 Nov 2022−2.4%
27 Mar 2023+12.2%
31 Jul 2023−3.9%

US Federal Reserve policy rate (top of its official range): raised its policy rate, first time in a cycle

1 past case · 1 still in progress

Since 2016, the US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate for the first time in a cycle once with a complete three-month record afterwards. That is too few past cases to say anything, so no figures are shown.

Caution: 1 of these 1 cases began in 2022, so this record mostly reflects that one year.

Past patterns are a record, not a prediction.

Dates of the 1 past cases

21 Mar 2022

RBI repo rate: raised the repo rate

4 past cases · 1 still in progress

Since 2016, the RBI raised the repo rate 4 times with a complete three-month record afterwards. That is too few past cases to say anything, so no figures are shown.

Caution: 3 of these 4 cases began in 2022, so this record mostly reflects that one year.

Past patterns are a record, not a prediction.

Dates of the 4 past cases

7 Jun 2018
5 May 2022
8 Aug 2022
8 Dec 2022

RBI repo rate: raised the repo rate, first time in a cycle

2 past cases · 1 still in progress

Since 2016, the RBI raised the repo rate for the first time in a cycle twice with a complete three-month record afterwards. That is too few past cases to say anything, so no figures are shown.

Past patterns are a record, not a prediction.

Dates of the 2 past cases

7 Jun 2018
5 May 2022

Gold (COMEX front month): fell this fast in a month

27 past cases · 1 still in progress

Since 2016, gold fell this fast in a month 27 times.

63 trading days (about three months) later, the Nifty 50 was higher in 21 of those 27 cases (median +4.4%, middle half +1.9% to +8.1%, full range −9.9% to +14.0%).

Across all three-month periods since 2016, the median Nifty 50 change was +3.6% (2420 overlapping periods).

Past patterns are a record, not a prediction.

Each dot is one past case: the Nifty 50's change (63 trading days after it). Hover a dot for its date.

Dates of the 27 past cases

21 Nov 2016+10.7%
10 Mar 2017+7.3%
4 Jul 2017+3.1%
5 Oct 2017+6.6%
28 Feb 2018+1.9%
26 Jun 2018+1.9%
5 Mar 2019+8.5%
30 Sep 2019+6.3%
16 Mar 2020+10.8%
3 Sep 2020+14.0%
7 Dec 2020+11.3%
9 Mar 2021+4.6%
18 Jun 2021+10.4%
24 Sep 2021−4.4%
6 Apr 2022−9.9%
8 Jul 2022+4.6%
12 Oct 2022+4.4%
15 Feb 2023+1.8%
26 May 2023+4.1%
28 Sep 2023+10.4%
29 Jan 2024+3.3%
19 Jun 2024+7.6%
14 Nov 2024−2.2%
19 May 2025−1.3%
17 Nov 2025−1.1%
20 Mar 2026+4.0%
29 Jun 2026−3.4%

By sector, compared with the Nifty 50

Sector	Cases	Median vs Nifty	Middle half	All periods
Bank	27	+1.1 pp	−3.0 to +4.1 pp	+0.7 pp
Financial services	27	+0.9 pp	−2.0 to +3.3 pp	+0.5 pp
PSU bank	27	−0.1 pp	−6.2 to +7.6 pp	+0.8 pp
IT	27	+0.1 pp	−6.7 to +5.0 pp	+1.4 pp
Auto	27	+1.5 pp	−1.8 to +3.7 pp	+0.2 pp
FMCG (everyday goods)	27	−0.7 pp	−5.5 to +2.4 pp	−1.1 pp
Pharma	27	−0.5 pp	−6.3 to +5.6 pp	−1.2 pp
Metal	27	+6.2 pp	−1.4 to +9.4 pp	+2.0 pp
Energy	27	+0.6 pp	−3.0 to +5.6 pp	0.0 pp
Realty	27	+5.9 pp	−4.9 to +10.5 pp	+1.0 pp
Infrastructure	27	+0.7 pp	−2.3 to +3.4 pp	+0.5 pp
Media	27	−3.3 pp	−11.3 to +3.1 pp	−4.1 pp

Unit: percentage points (sector minus Nifty 50, log returns)

Copper (COMEX front month): fell this fast in a month

25 past cases · 1 still in progress

Since 2016, copper fell this fast in a month 25 times.

63 trading days (about three months) later, the Nifty 50 was higher in 18 of those 25 cases (median +4.8%, middle half −1.4% to +8.4%, full range −26.5% to +21.1%).

Across all three-month periods since 2016, the median Nifty 50 change was +3.6% (2420 overlapping periods).

Past patterns are a record, not a prediction.

Each dot is one past case: the Nifty 50's change (63 trading days after it). Hover a dot for its date.

Dates of the 25 past cases

26 Dec 2016+14.0%
19 Apr 2017+8.4%
26 Sep 2017+6.1%
8 Feb 2018+2.1%
3 Jul 2018−3.6%
31 Oct 2018+4.8%
26 Mar 2019+3.3%
5 Aug 2019+8.6%
27 Jan 2020−26.5%
5 Oct 2020+21.1%
26 Mar 2021+8.0%
1 Jul 2021+11.2%
15 Nov 2021−7.3%
25 Apr 2022−1.4%
25 Jul 2022+6.4%
16 Feb 2023+1.4%
25 May 2023+5.7%
29 Aug 2023+4.7%
18 Jan 2024+5.0%
12 Jun 2024+8.5%
28 Oct 2024−5.8%
7 Apr 2025+13.9%
1 Aug 2025+4.1%
6 Feb 2026−8.1%
25 Jun 2026−4.2%

By sector, compared with the Nifty 50

Sector	Cases	Median vs Nifty	Middle half	All periods
Bank	25	0.0 pp	−3.3 to +2.6 pp	+0.7 pp
Financial services	25	−0.6 pp	−2.6 to +2.7 pp	+0.5 pp
PSU bank	25	+1.3 pp	−4.2 to +9.1 pp	+0.8 pp
IT	25	+0.3 pp	−5.2 to +4.9 pp	+1.4 pp
Auto	25	+2.2 pp	−4.2 to +4.4 pp	+0.2 pp
FMCG (everyday goods)	25	−0.2 pp	−2.8 to +3.6 pp	−1.1 pp
Pharma	25	−2.5 pp	−9.2 to +6.0 pp	−1.2 pp
Metal	25	+3.3 pp	−3.4 to +8.9 pp	+2.0 pp
Energy	25	+1.1 pp	−3.4 to +4.3 pp	0.0 pp
Realty	25	+3.3 pp	−6.3 to +8.9 pp	+1.0 pp
Infrastructure	25	0.0 pp	−2.6 to +3.5 pp	+0.5 pp
Media	25	−8.4 pp	−15.0 to +7.1 pp	−4.1 pp

Unit: percentage points (sector minus Nifty 50, log returns)

Nifty 50: rose this fast in a month

27 past cases · 1 still in progress

Since 2016, the Nifty 50 rose this fast in a month 27 times.

63 trading days (about three months) later, the Nifty 50 was higher in 17 of those 27 cases (median +2.3%, middle half −2.4% to +7.6%, full range −9.2% to +18.6%).

Across all three-month periods since 2016, the median Nifty 50 change was +3.6% (2420 overlapping periods).

Past patterns are a record, not a prediction.

Each dot is one past case: the Nifty 50's change (63 trading days after it). Hover a dot for its date.

Dates of the 27 past cases

20 Jan 2017+11.3%
27 Jul 2017+3.4%
31 Oct 2017+6.5%
1 Feb 2018−2.8%
27 Jul 2018−8.3%
28 Nov 2018+0.6%
18 Mar 2019+2.1%
24 Sep 2019+5.6%
23 Apr 2020+18.6%
24 Jul 2020+6.1%
23 Oct 2020+17.7%
3 Feb 2021+1.0%
24 May 2021+8.2%
25 Aug 2021+2.3%
5 Jan 2022−1.6%
8 Apr 2022−9.2%
18 Jul 2022+7.3%
31 Oct 2022−2.0%
25 Apr 2023+10.2%
26 Jul 2023−3.8%
29 Nov 2023+9.0%
10 Jun 2024+7.4%
13 Sep 2024−2.8%
17 Dec 2024−6.4%
28 Mar 2025+7.9%
30 Oct 2025−3.1%
20 Apr 2026−0.7%

By sector, compared with the Nifty 50

Sector	Cases	Median vs Nifty	Middle half	All periods
Bank	27	+0.7 pp	−3.1 to +2.7 pp	+0.7 pp
Financial services	27	−0.6 pp	−2.4 to +3.0 pp	+0.5 pp
PSU bank	27	+2.2 pp	−6.7 to +9.6 pp	+0.8 pp
IT	27	+3.2 pp	−2.7 to +7.7 pp	+1.4 pp
Auto	27	+0.5 pp	−5.3 to +5.0 pp	+0.2 pp
FMCG (everyday goods)	27	−1.0 pp	−5.5 to +0.6 pp	−1.1 pp
Pharma	27	−2.0 pp	−4.8 to +4.9 pp	−1.2 pp
Metal	27	+3.2 pp	−4.5 to +9.4 pp	+2.0 pp
Energy	27	0.0 pp	−5.7 to +4.9 pp	0.0 pp
Realty	27	+2.8 pp	−6.1 to +11.4 pp	+1.0 pp
Infrastructure	27	+0.8 pp	−2.3 to +2.6 pp	+0.5 pp
Media	27	−2.5 pp	−9.5 to +5.3 pp	−4.1 pp

Unit: percentage points (sector minus Nifty 50, log returns)

Coming up

Dates come from the publishers' own calendars. Figures appear here only after release, exactly as published. There are no consensus estimates. Window: 30 Oct 2026 to 12 Jan 2027.

16 Nov 2026
India WPI release (DPIIT)IN2026-10
Wholesale price inflation: price changes at the factory gate and in wholesale markets, an early read on cost pressure for companies.
Source: dpiit_arc · link
28 Nov 2026
India IIP release (MoSPI)IN
Industrial production: how much India's factories, mines and power plants produced.
Source: MoSPI release calendar · link
30 Nov 2026
India GDP release (MoSPI)IN
The size and growth of India's economy, the broadest measure of how the country is doing.
Source: MoSPI release calendar · link
1 Dec 2026
India GST collections (monthly)IN
Monthly GST tax collections, a quick read on spending and business activity in India.
Source: convention · link
4 Dec 2026
RBI MPC policy decisionIN
The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee decides India's repo rate, which feeds into loan and deposit rates across the country.
Source: Reserve Bank of India · link
4 Dec 202619:00 IST
US Employment Situation (BLS)US
The monthly US jobs report. Surprises in it have moved US interest rates and the dollar, and through them money flows into India.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics · link
9 Dec 202624:30 IST
FOMC rate decisionUS
The US Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision. It sets the cost of borrowing in dollars worldwide and has moved the rupee and foreign money flows into India.
Source: US Federal Reserve · link
10 Dec 202619:00 IST
US CPI release (BLS)US
US consumer inflation. It shapes the Federal Reserve's rate decisions, which ripple through to the dollar, the rupee and Indian shares.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics · link
12 Dec 2026
India CPI release (MoSPI)IN
India's monthly consumer inflation figure, the main number the RBI weighs when it sets rates.
Source: MoSPI release calendar · link
14 Dec 2026
India WPI release (DPIIT)IN2026-11
Wholesale price inflation: price changes at the factory gate and in wholesale markets, an early read on cost pressure for companies.
Source: dpiit_arc · link
17 Dec 2026
Bank of England MPC decisionGB
The Bank of England's interest-rate decision for the UK.
Source: boe · link
17 Dec 2026
ECB monetary policy decisionXM
The European Central Bank's interest-rate decision for the euro area, a major market for Indian exports.
Source: ecb · link
18 Dec 2026
Bank of Japan monetary policy decisionJP
The Bank of Japan's interest-rate decision. Japanese rates affect how much cheap yen borrowing flows into markets worldwide.
Source: boj · link
28 Dec 2026
India IIP release (MoSPI)IN
Industrial production: how much India's factories, mines and power plants produced.
Source: MoSPI release calendar · link
1 Jan 2027
India GST collections (monthly)IN
Monthly GST tax collections, a quick read on spending and business activity in India.
Source: convention · link
7 Jan 2027
India GDP release (MoSPI)IN
The size and growth of India's economy, the broadest measure of how the country is doing.
Source: MoSPI release calendar · link
12 Jan 2027
India CPI release (MoSPI)IN
India's monthly consumer inflation figure, the main number the RBI weighs when it sets rates.
Source: MoSPI release calendar · link

Recently released

12 Nov 2026
India CPI release (MoSPI)IN
India's monthly consumer inflation figure, the main number the RBI weighs when it sets rates.
Source: MoSPI (Government of India) · link
10 Nov 202619:00 IST
US CPI release (BLS)US
US consumer inflation. It shapes the Federal Reserve's rate decisions, which ripple through to the dollar, the rupee and Indian shares.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics · link
10 Nov 2026
US CPI-U, all items (NSA) — 2026M10US2026M10
Actual 337.51 · previous 336.94 (index (1982-84=100))
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics · link
10 Nov 2026
US CPI-U less food & energy (NSA) — 2026M10US2026M10
Actual 339.92 · previous 339.29 (index (1982-84=100))
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics · link
6 Nov 202619:00 IST
US Employment Situation (BLS)US
The monthly US jobs report. Surprises in it have moved US interest rates and the dollar, and through them money flows into India.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics · link
6 Nov 2026
US unemployment rate (SA) — 2026M10US2026M10
Actual 4.10 · previous 4.20 (percent of labour force)
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics · link
6 Nov 2026
US nonfarm payrolls (SA) — 2026M10US2026M10
Actual 1,59,293 · previous 1,59,128 (thousands of persons)
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics · link
5 Nov 2026
Bank of England MPC decisionGB
The Bank of England's interest-rate decision for the UK.
Source: boe · link
3 Nov 2026
Zinc, monthly avg (LME) — 2026M10GL2026M10
Actual 3,818 · previous 4,021 (USD per metric tonne)
Source: World Bank · link
3 Nov 2026
Urea, monthly avg — 2026M10GL2026M10
Actual 420.00 · previous 407.50 (USD per metric tonne)
Source: World Bank · link
3 Nov 2026
Sugar, world, monthly avg — 2026M10GL2026M10
Actual 0.43 · previous 0.41 (USD per kg)
Source: World Bank · link
3 Nov 2026
Rubber RSS3, monthly avg — 2026M10GL2026M10
Actual 2.83 · previous 2.75 (USD per kg)
Source: World Bank · link
3 Nov 2026
Palm oil, monthly avg — 2026M10GL2026M10
Actual 1,120 · previous 1,180 (USD per metric tonne)
Source: World Bank · link
3 Nov 2026
Nickel, monthly avg (LME) — 2026M10GL2026M10
Actual 15,436 · previous 16,324 (USD per metric tonne)
Source: World Bank · link
3 Nov 2026
Natural gas, Europe (TTF), monthly avg — 2026M10GL2026M10
Actual 28.50 · previous 25.42 (USD per MMBtu)
Source: World Bank · link
3 Nov 2026
LNG, Japan, monthly avg — 2026M10GL2026M10
Actual 16.59 · previous 16.26 (USD per MMBtu)
Source: World Bank · link
3 Nov 2026
Lead, monthly avg (LME) — 2026M10GL2026M10
Actual 1,860 · previous 1,873 (USD per metric tonne)
Source: World Bank · link
3 Nov 2026
Iron ore CFR spot, monthly avg — 2026M10GL2026M10
Actual 90.80 · previous 97.70 (USD per dry metric tonne unit)
Source: World Bank · link
3 Nov 2026
DAP fertiliser, monthly avg — 2026M10GL2026M10
Actual 803.10 · previous 800.60 (USD per metric tonne)
Source: World Bank · link
3 Nov 2026
Cotton A Index, monthly avg — 2026M10GL2026M10
Actual 2.00 · previous 2.10 (USD per kg)
Source: World Bank · link
3 Nov 2026
Copper, monthly avg (LME) — 2026M10GL2026M10
Actual 14,508 · previous 14,474 (USD per metric tonne)
Source: World Bank · link
3 Nov 2026
Coal, Australian, monthly avg — 2026M10GL2026M10
Actual 152.30 · previous 147.10 (USD per metric tonne)
Source: World Bank · link
3 Nov 2026
Brent crude, monthly avg (World Bank) — 2026M10GL2026M10
Actual 125.00 · previous 116.80 (USD per barrel)
Source: World Bank · link
3 Nov 2026
Aluminium, monthly avg (LME) — 2026M10GL2026M10
Actual 3,061 · previous 3,283 (USD per metric tonne)
Source: World Bank · link
2 Nov 2026
India CPI, all items (index) — 2026-09IN2026-09
Actual 171.32 · previous 170.11 (index (2015=100))
Source: OECD · link
1 Nov 2026
India GST collections (monthly)IN
Monthly GST tax collections, a quick read on spending and business activity in India.
Source: convention · link
30 Oct 2026
Bank of Japan monetary policy decisionJP
The Bank of Japan's interest-rate decision. Japanese rates affect how much cheap yen borrowing flows into markets worldwide.
Source: boj · link

Foreign money by sector

Foreign portfolio investors' holdings of Indian shares by sector (assets under custody) and the net money they put in or took out during the fortnight, as reported by NSDL. Amounts are in rupees crore (1 crore = 10 million).

Sector	Holdings (₹ crore)	Change in holdings	Net money in/out (₹ crore)
Financial Services	19,83,600	−3.6%	−883
Healthcare	5,30,564	+4.6%	−57
Automobile And Auto Components	4,74,532	−0.7%	−1,098
Capital Goods	4,49,525	−5.7%	−825
Information Technology	4,30,166	+7.9%	+10,915
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels	4,11,800	−4.5%	−970
Telecommunication	3,89,729	+8.3%	+11,065
Sovereign	3,89,592	0.0%	+0
Others	3,02,091	+2.5%	+594
Consumer Services	2,90,857	+0.9%	−662
Metals & Mining	2,57,254	−2.5%	−904
Fast Moving Consumer Goods	2,55,780	−4.8%	−1,559
Power	2,44,643	+0.3%	−765
Services	1,98,889	−0.3%	+658
Consumer Durables	1,72,174	−4.0%	−402
Realty	1,37,829	−1.5%	−438
Construction	1,16,243	+2.9%	−516
Chemicals	1,12,682	−5.9%	−862
Construction Materials	96,002	+0.5%	−196
Textiles	20,888	−3.6%	−21
Media, Entertainment & Publication	11,409	+2.9%	+140
Diversified	3,866	−8.7%	−16
Utilities	2,579	−7.1%	−27
Forest Materials	1,476	−7.1%	−58
All sectors	72,84,170		+13,113

Unit: INR crore · Source: NSDL fortnightly FPI investment report · As of 31 Oct 2026

The rest of the world

Closing levels of major overseas indices in their own currencies, and central-bank policy rates. For prices that update through the day, see the global markets page.

Overseas share indices

Name	Close	1 month	1 year	As of
S&P 500 index points (USD) · Yahoo Finance (^GSPC)	7,592.4	−2.8%	+10.8%	12 Nov 2026
Nasdaq Composite index points (USD) · Yahoo Finance (^IXIC)	25,366.1	−6.9%	+8.4%	12 Nov 2026
Dow Jones Industrial Average index points (USD) · Yahoo Finance (^DJI)	52,297.1	+0.9%	+8.4%	12 Nov 2026
FTSE 100 index points (GBP) · Yahoo Finance (^FTSE)	10,863.1	+1.9%	+9.6%	12 Nov 2026
DAX 40 index points (EUR) · Yahoo Finance (^GDAXI)	26,771.9	+5.9%	+9.8%	12 Nov 2026
Nikkei 225 index points (JPY) · Yahoo Finance (^N225)	60,819.4	−11.9%	+19.1%	12 Nov 2026
Hang Seng index points (HKD) · Yahoo Finance (^HSI)	24,008.6	−1.1%	−10.8%	12 Nov 2026
Shanghai Composite index points (CNY) · Yahoo Finance (000001.SS)	3,655.8	−3.7%	−8.6%	12 Nov 2026
KOSPI index points (KRW) · Yahoo Finance (^KS11)	5,342.7	−16.3%	+28.7%	12 Nov 2026

Central-bank policy rates

Name	Rate	1 month	1 year	As of
US Federal Reserve policy rate (top of its official range) percent per annum · Federal Reserve Bank of New York	4.00%	0 bp	0 bp	10 Nov 2026
European Central Bank policy rate percent per annum · Bank for International Settlements	2.50%	0 bp	+50 bp	10 Nov 2026
Bank of England Bank Rate percent per annum · Bank for International Settlements	4.00%	+25 bp	0 bp	9 Nov 2026
Bank of Japan policy rate percent per annum · Bank for International Settlements	1.25%	0 bp	+75 bp	10 Nov 2026
People's Bank of China policy rate percent per annum · Bank for International Settlements	3.00%	0 bp	0 bp	10 Nov 2026
RBI repo rate percent per annum · Reserve Bank of India	5.50%	0 bp	0 bp	13 Nov 2026

Live gold, crude, GIFT Nifty and world indices →

How this page works

Every number here is computed by fixed rules written down before the results were looked at. Nothing is written by an AI model.

How unusual: each driver's latest move is ranked against every move of the same kind since 2016. A move in the top or bottom fifth counts as unusual; anything else is ordinary and gets no comparison.

What happened before: for an unusual move, we find past dates with a move in the same fifth and the same direction. Dates close together count once, and no two cases share any days of their outcome window.

We then measure the Nifty 50's change from the first trading day after each past move became public, over 21, 63 and 126 trading days (about one, three and six months).

Every result shows the number of past cases, their middle value (median), the middle half and the full range, and the base rate: the Nifty 50's median change over every period of the same length since 2016.

Fewer than 6 past cases: no figures are shown. More than half the cases in one year: a caution names that year.

Data: market prices from Yahoo Finance, US rates from the US Treasury and the New York Fed, policy rates from the RBI and the Bank for International Settlements, inflation from the OECD, foreign investment from NSDL. Each figure names its own source and date.

Limits: our Nifty 50 history starts in October 2016, so every record covers about ten years. Some older inflation figures are today's revised values, not the first published ones.

Past patterns are a record, not a prediction.

This is for information only and is not investment advice.

Method version world.analogues.v2 · computed for 13 Nov 2026

Basis point: One hundredth of a percentage point. A rate moving from 5.25% to 5.50% has moved 25 basis points.
Percentage point: The plain difference between two percentages: inflation going from 4% to 5% is a 1 percentage point rise.
Percentile: Where a reading sits within its own history, from 0 (the lowest ever seen) to 100 (the highest). The 90th percentile means higher than 90% of past readings.
Median: The middle value: half of the past cases were above it and half below.
Middle half: The range covering the middle 50% of past cases, leaving out the top and bottom quarter.
Base rate: What the Nifty 50 did over every period of the same length since 2016, whatever else was going on. It is the yardstick for any single pattern.
Trading day: A day the Indian stock market was open. About 21 trading days make a month.
Log change: A way of measuring percentage moves that adds up cleanly over time. For small moves it is almost the same as a plain percentage.

These world drivers are not covered yet, and the reason for each.

Foreign investors' net flows into Indian shares is not covered yet: W2.1 FII backfill: IN_FII_NET_CASH starts 2026-01-14.
Trade and tariff actions is not covered yet: D4: reviewed trade actions in macro_events (category 'trade').
The monsoon is not covered yet: No IMD rainfall series (D7, optional).

Live gold, crude, GIFT Nifty & world indices →Gainers, losers & FII/DII →Foreign and domestic investor flows →

Past patterns are a record, not a prediction. This is for information only and is not investment advice. Every figure names its source and date. See how this page works.