What breakouts have actually done
Every time a stock closed above the top of its base, we kept watching. This page counts what happened next: how many held, how many fell straight back, and what the better ones had in common. It describes the past; it does not say what any stock will do.
Lately
Breakouts are failing more than usual.
57% of the last 150 fell back under their pivot within 10 sessions, against 39% over the whole record since 2020.
Those 150 are the most recent breakouts old enough to judge, from 3 Sept 2026 to 11 Nov 2026. Of the 126 with 20 sessions behind them, the typical result was −9.2%.
The whole record
About 2 of every 10 breakouts were up 10% or more 20 sessions later. About 4 of every 10 fell back under the pivot within 10 sessions.
- Breakouts counted
- 8,256
- Every breakout we recorded since Apr 2020.
- Worked
- 23.9%
- Up 10% or more, 20 sessions after the breakout.
- Failed
- 39.0%
- Closed 3% or more back under the pivot within 10 sessions.
- Typical result after 20 sessions
- +0.9%
- The median: half did better, half did worse.
- Typical result after 60 sessions
- +3.9%
- The median, about three months later.
- Typical worst drop
- −11.1%
- The lowest price inside 60 sessions, against the breakout close. Median.
What separated the better breakouts
The same record, split four ways. In every table: how many breakouts, the share that worked, the share that failed, the typical result after 20 and 60 sessions, and the typical worst drop on the way.
By how strong the stock already was
| Relative strength | Breakouts | Worked | Failed | After 20 sessions | After 60 sessions | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RS 90 and above | 810 | 30.1% | 39.4% | +1.9% | +4.5% | −13.0% |
| RS 70 to 89 | 1,647 | 21.4% | 40.0% | +0.3% | +3.0% | −11.7% |
| RS under 70 | 2,914 | 15.7% | 41.1% | −0.8% | −1.6% | −11.9% |
Grouped by how strong the stock already was on the day it broke out. Relative strength is recorded from 2021, so earlier breakouts are not in this table. Breakouts from stocks at RS 90 and above had a median of +4.5% after 60 sessions; from stocks under RS 70 the median was −1.6%. The share that failed was close to the same in every group.
By the breakout day
| Breakout day | Breakouts | Worked | Failed | After 20 sessions | After 60 sessions | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy volume, closed near the high | 5,590 | 23.7% | 36.7% | +0.9% | +4.1% | −11.4% |
| Ordinary breakout day | 1,739 | 23.6% | 44.5% | +0.9% | +3.8% | −10.6% |
| Light volume, or closed near the low | 927 | 25.4% | 42.4% | +0.8% | +3.2% | −10.1% |
Grouped by the breakout day itself. Heavy means at least 1.5 times normal volume with a close in the top 40% of the day’s range. Light means under normal volume, or a close in the bottom 30%. Heavy-volume breakouts failed less often than ordinary ones (36.7% against 44.5%).
By the shape of the base
| Shape | Breakouts | Worked | Failed | After 20 sessions | After 60 sessions | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCP | 1,774 | 22.1% | 38.7% | +0.7% | +2.6% | −10.5% |
| High since 2020 | 4,071 | 23.0% | 38.7% | +0.8% | +3.9% | −11.0% |
| Multi-yearsmall sample | 40 | 37.5% | 22.5% | +5.5% | +0.2% | −11.3% |
| IPO base | 431 | 24.9% | 42.2% | −0.3% | +1.6% | −13.3% |
Grouped by the named shape of the base. A base can carry more than one shape, so the rows overlap. Shape barely separates outcomes: the share that failed sits within 3.5 points across the larger groups. Rows marked small sample hold too few breakouts to read much into.
By year
| Year | Breakouts | Worked | Failed | After 20 sessions | After 60 sessions | Worst drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1,114 | 32.7% | 34.6% | +4.2% | +15.8% | −8.4% |
| 2021 | 1,473 | 27.4% | 37.2% | +1.8% | +6.6% | −9.9% |
| 2022 | 720 | 20.7% | 42.9% | −1.7% | −2.6% | −15.4% |
| 2023 | 1,294 | 27.5% | 30.6% | +3.1% | +11.3% | −7.2% |
| 2024 | 1,626 | 22.6% | 41.7% | −0.2% | −0.4% | −15.2% |
| 2025 | 1,037 | 13.2% | 47.3% | −2.3% | −5.9% | −13.9% |
| 2026 | 992 | 19.6% | 41.8% | −0.6% | +2.0% | −12.4% |
Grouped by the year of the breakout. The same kind of base did very different things in different years, which is the market, not the base. 2026 is not finished: only 768 of its 992 breakouts are old enough to have a 60-session result.
Month by month
The share of each month’s breakouts that failed. Good and bad stretches come in runs, which is why the recent ones lead this page.
Show the numbers behind the bars
| Month | Breakouts | Failed | After 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2026 | 2 | 100.0% | not measured yet |
| Oct 2026 | 52 | 51.9% | −7.4% |
| Sep 2026 | 106 | 58.5% | −9.2% |
| Aug 2026 | 170 | 34.7% | −0.1% |
| Jul 2026 | 132 | 43.2% | +0.1% |
| Jun 2026 | 138 | 32.6% | +1.1% |
| May 2026 | 125 | 48.8% | +2.1% |
| Apr 2026 | 127 | 25.2% | +3.3% |
| Mar 2026 | 19 | 47.4% | +8.7% |
| Feb 2026 | 71 | 50.7% | −9.7% |
| Jan 2026 | 50 | 50.0% | −4.0% |
| Dec 2025 | 48 | 35.4% | −3.3% |
| Nov 2025 | 90 | 48.9% | −3.0% |
| Oct 2025 | 118 | 37.3% | −0.0% |
| Sep 2025 | 125 | 52.0% | −3.5% |
| Aug 2025 | 66 | 39.4% | +2.7% |
| Jul 2025 | 189 | 51.9% | −6.2% |
| Jun 2025 | 132 | 47.0% | −0.2% |
| May 2025 | 131 | 32.1% | +2.3% |
| Apr 2025 | 52 | 53.8% | −1.8% |
| Mar 2025 | 25 | 56.0% | −2.0% |
| Feb 2025 | 20 | 85.0% | −8.0% |
| Jan 2025 | 41 | 80.5% | −12.3% |
| Dec 2024 | 148 | 50.0% | −7.9% |
| Nov 2024 | 74 | 35.1% | +3.4% |
| Oct 2024 | 92 | 63.0% | −4.5% |
| Sep 2024 | 142 | 47.2% | −3.3% |
| Aug 2024 | 176 | 29.0% | +4.7% |
| Jul 2024 | 172 | 47.1% | +0.0% |
| Jun 2024 | 188 | 24.5% | +2.8% |
| May 2024 | 99 | 53.5% | +5.7% |
| Apr 2024 | 178 | 33.7% | +2.0% |
| Mar 2024 | 40 | 47.5% | +4.4% |
| Feb 2024 | 131 | 64.9% | −5.4% |
| Jan 2024 | 186 | 31.2% | +3.2% |
| Dec 2023 | 177 | 28.8% | +3.9% |
Read this before trusting any of it
- Counts only stocks that are liquid enough to be scanned today, so companies that collapsed or delisted are under-represented and the record flatters itself.
- Returns are close-to-close from the breakout day's close, before costs, slippage and taxes.
- A breakout 'worked' if it was up 10% or more 20 sessions later, and 'failed' if it closed 3% or more back under its pivot within 10 sessions. Both are our thresholds, not laws.
- Price history starts in 2020. Relative strength at the pivot is recorded from 2021; earlier breakouts are in the totals but not in the strength split.
- This describes what past breakouts did. It does not say what any current setup will do.
Counted from end-of-day prices up to 13 Nov 2026. Back to the scan
Base and breakout detection describes past price and volume. It is provided for research and education, is not investment advice, and no pattern or threshold predicts future returns.