National Fertilizers Limited DCF Valuation
NFL · Chemicals · Current price ₹62.9
National Fertilizers Limited cash-flow valuation
Our engine did not use a discounted-cash-flow model for National Fertilizers Limited. It routes each business to the methods that suit it, and a DCF is a poor lens where cash-flow forecasts are fragile or the business is capital-structure driven. The methods it did use, and why, are set out below. Our published estimate is ₹41.
Try your own assumptions
Prefer to build the discounted cash flow yourself? The DCF calculator below opens pre-filled with National Fertilizers Limited's reported free cash flow, net debt and share count, so you can set your own growth and discount rate.
How we got this fair value
Every number below is part of the same estimate for National Fertilizers Limited. Nothing here is a target price or a forecast of where the share price will go.
Workable, with real gaps. Weigh it alongside your own view rather than on its own.
Estimate range ₹37 – ₹45
Why this method for this business
Normalized earnings and EV/EBITDA are the most appropriate models for a cyclical fertilizer business, as they reflect mid-cycle earnings and through-cycle valuation multiples.
The models behind the number
Each method is weighted by how well its inputs held up for this company.
Cyclical valued off mid-cycle earnings and a through-cycle EV/EBITDA (§6.6)
required inputs missing
- DCF is not suitable for a cyclical commodity business with volatile cash flows
- Book value is not relevant for an asset-heavy, cyclical business
What was missing
- Forward estimates are not available
- Limited analyst coverage
- Uncertainty in macroeconomic conditions
What drives it
7 inputs, grouped by how strong each claim is
- Revenue (TTM)
- 21,519 ₹ cr
- Net debt
- 3,904.9 ₹ cr
- Shares outstanding
- 49,13,29,480
computed
computed
computed
- EBITDA margin (cycle median)
- 3.1%
- Through-cycle EV/EBITDA
- 8.89×
computed (≤5y median)
own-history (median of 5y)
- Mid-cycle EBITDA
- 667.1 ₹ cr
- Enterprise value
- 5,927.6 ₹ cr
computed
computed
Who computed this
A language model (qwen3:8b) selects the valuation method and the judgement inputs for National Fertilizers Limited: which models suit the business, the moat, the growth and margin assumptions. It does not produce the number. The fair value itself is computed in Python by a deterministic engine (version 2026.08.1) from those inputs, so the same inputs always give the same result and every figure above can be traced to a source.
Estimated 14 Sept 2026. Re-run as new financials and news arrive.
How we value stocks
We estimate what a business is worth from its own economics: cash flows, returns on capital, and a multiple justified by its quality, rather than from where the share price has been. A fair value estimate is a view, not a verdict, and it is only as good as the inputs listed above.
Read the full fair-value methodologyMore on National Fertilizers Limited
DocStoX estimates are computed from reported financials, for informational purposes only, not investment advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.